Brown Victory in Massachusetts Would End 3rd Longest GOP U.S. Senate Drought in Nation

Only West Virginia and Hawaii have gone more years without electing a Republican to a U.S. Senate seat

With all the momentum seemingly with state Senator Scott Brown in his special election battle with Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley, Republicans are on the edge of their seats Tuesday in hopes of winning their first U.S. Senate seat in Massachusetts since 1972.

The 38-year drought is currently the third longest for the GOP in the country, along with the state of New Jersey.

Massachusetts and New Jersey voters last elected Republicans Edward Brooke and Clifford Case respectively to the Senate back in 1972. (New Jersey Republican Senator Nicholas Brady was appointed in 1982).

But as Smart Politics documented Monday, a competitive showing, or even a victory for the Republican candidate in the heavily Democratic state of Massachusetts on Tuesday, would not be an anomaly in the annals of U.S. Senate special elections.

Special elections have been approximately 10 points more competitive than full-term seat contests since 1990, and 65 percent of U.S. Senate special elections since 1970 have resulted in a partisan flipping of voter preferences since the last time the seat in question was on the ballot (13 of 20 contests).

Moreover, despite its left-leaning tendencies, the Bay State has elected several Republicans to prominent statewide offices in recent years – notably Governors William Weld, A. Paul Cellucci, and Mitt Romney.

Additionally, state Senator Brown is considered by most analysts to be a good Republican fit “for the state.” That is to say, Brown is viewed as being much more liberal than most high profile Republican candidates and officeholders nationwide.

The 38-year U.S. Senate election drought for the GOP in Massachusetts is only eclipsed by the states of West Virginia (54 years, 1956) and Hawaii (40 years, 1970). The Democratic hold on West Virginia might very well end once 92-year old Robert Byrd is no longer on the ballot – Byrd has served 51+ years in the Senate to date.

In the Upper Midwest, North Dakota is tied, along with Maryland, for the 5th longest GOP U.S. Senate election victory drought in the nation at 30 years – with Republicans favored to win the open seat being vacated by retiring Democrat Byron Dorgan this November.

Wisconsin has the 8th longest GOP drought in the country at 24 years. The last Republican elected by the Badger State to the U.S. Senate was Robert Kasten, Jr. in 1986. Kasten was defeated by Democrat Russ Feingold in 1992.

Minnesota is tied for the 19th longest Republican election victory drought in the U.S. at eight years (Norm Coleman, 2002).

Number of Years Since the Republican Party Last Won a U.S. Senate Election by State

Rank	State	Senator	Elected	Years
1	West Virginia	W. Chapman Revercomb	1956	54
2	Hawaii	Hiram Fong	1970	40
3	Massachusetts	Edward Brooke	1972	38
3	New Jersey	Clifford Case	1972	38
5	Maryland	Charles Mathias	1980	30
5	North Dakota	Mark Andrews	1980	30
7	Connecticut	Lowell Weicker	1982	28
8	Wisconsin	Robert Kasten, Jr.	1986	24
9	California	Pete Wilson	1988	22
10	New York	Al D’Amato	1992	18
11	Delaware	William Roth	1994	16
11	Michigan	Spencer Abraham	1994	16
11	Washington	Slade Gordon	1994	16
14	Arkansas	Tim Hutchinson	1996	14
15	Illinois	Peter Fitzgerald	1998	12
16	Montana	Conrad Burns	2000	10
16	Rhode Island	Lincoln Chafee	2000	10
16	Vermont	Jim Jeffords	2000	10
19	Colorado	Wayne Allard	2002	8
19	Minnesota	Norm Coleman	2002	8
19	New Mexico	Pete Domenici	2002	8
19	Oregon	Gordon Smith	2002	8
19	Virginia	John Warner	2002	8
24*	Alaska	Lisa Murkowski	2004	6
24*	Florida	Mel Martinez	2004	6
24*	Iowa	Chuck Grassley	2004	6
24*	Louisiana	David Vitter	2004	6
24*	Missouri	Kit Bond	2004	6
24*	New Hampshire	Judd Gregg	2004	6
24*	North Carolina	Richard Burr	2004	6
24*	Ohio	George Voinovich	2004	6
24*	Pennsylvania	Arlen Specter	2004	6
24*	South Dakota	John Thune	2004	6
34*	Arizona	Jon Kyl	2006	4
34*	Indiana	Richard Lugar	2006	4
34*	Nevada	John Ensign	2006	4
34*	Utah	Orrin Hatch	2006	4
38*	Alabama	Jeff Sessions	2008	2
38*	Georgia	Saxby Chambliss	2008	2
38*	Idaho	Jim Risch	2008	2
38*	Kansas	Pat Roberts	2008	2
38*	Kentucky	Mitch McConnell	2008	2
38*	Maine	Susan Collins	2008	2
38*	Mississippi	Thad Cochran	2008	2
38*	Nebraska	Mike Johanns	2008	2
38*	Oklahoma	James Inhofe	2008	2
38*	South Carolina	Lindsey Graham	2008	2
38*	Tennessee	Lamar Alexander	2008	2
38*	Texas	John Cornyn	2008	2
38*	Wyoming	Michael Enzi	2008	2

* Denotes state in which the Republican Party won its most recent gubernatorial election. Data compiled by Smart Politics.

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