Can Pawlenty Launch a Sam’s Club Presidential Campaign from a Target State?

Minnesota ranks #33 in the nation in Sam’s Club & Wal-Mart stores per capita, and ranks #1 for Target; no other rumored 2012 GOP presidential candidate hails from a Top 15 “Target State”

It was nearly a decade ago when Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty first told GOP activists that the Party needed to be, “The party of Sam’s Club, not just the country club.”

That message – which reminds the Party that its members demand value from the government for their taxpayer dollars (and that the GOP should focus on bread and butter issues) – has followed Pawlenty on the campaign trail ever since and stuck with him particularly in the national media.

For example, during the period of deep reflection by the Republican Party after losing big to the Democrats for the second consecutive election cycle in November 2008, Pawlenty appeared on Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace, who twice brought up the Sam’s Club reference. Pawlenty explained:

“We should get back to having a federal constitutional requirement — or at least a statutory requirement — that the federal budget be balanced. That’s first and foremost for our party. And people in Sam’s Club understand that. They have to live on a budget and they expect their government to, as well.” (November 16, 2008)

But after years of advancing the symbol of Sam’s Club Republicans, why hasn’t this image resonated for Pawlenty with the American public?

At this early stage in the 2012 presidential ‘campaign,’ Pawlenty is taking a backseat to a pool of other potential candidates who played prominent roles in the 2008 race, and thus enjoy much better name recognition (e.g. Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, and Mike Huckabee).

For example, last month’s CNN survey of Republican and Republican-leaning independents found Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty in a tie for 7th place in early 2012 GOP horserace polling. At just 2 percent, Pawlenty trailed Mike Huckabee (24 percent), Mitt Romney (20 percent), Sarah Palin (15 percent), Newt Gingrich (14 percent), Ron Paul (8 percent), and Rick Santorum (3 percent). Indiana Congressman Mike Pence also received 2 percent.

But perhaps there is also a fundamental disconnect for Republican voters with the Sam’s Club Republican metaphor when delivered by Pawlenty – a Minnesotan.

First, the Gopher State (most recently known nationally for electing the liberal Senator Al Franken) does not spring to mind when thinking of Sam’s Club and its parent company, Wal-Mart. Rather, Minnesota is the headquarters for Wal-Mart’s chief competitor: Target.

In fact, a Smart Politics analysis of Target and Wal-Mart corporate data finds that while Minnesota naturally leads the nation in the number of Target stores per capita, it ranks only #33 in the nation for Sam’s Club and Wal-Mart.

And yet, Pawlenty chose Sam’s Club, not Target, for his lynchpin message.

One reason Pawlenty may continue to hammer away at his Sam’s Club rhetoric (in addition to the clever word play when paired with ‘country club’) is that there are far more Wal-Mart and Sam’s Club stores nationwide (4,305) than Target (1,739).

Moreover, Target’s ad campaigns (the visuals, the music, the style) evoke an image that is slicker, less rural, and less conservative than the image branding of Wal-Mart and Sam’s Club.

To be sure, states topping the list for the highest number of Wal-Mart and Sam’s Club stores per capita are either deep red or purple turning red.

After Arkansas (home to Wal-Mart’s corporate office), some of the states with the highest per capita rates of Wal-Mart and Sam’s Club stores are Oklahoma (#2), Mississippi (#3), Alabama (#4), Kansas (#5), North Dakota (#7), Kentucky (#8), West Virginia (#9), and Louisiana (#10).

No deep blue state even cracks the Top 15, with Maine the highest at #16.

The other states in the Top 15 are a mixture of red and purple states: New Hampshire (#6), Missouri (#11), Wyoming (#12), New Mexico (#13), Iowa (#14), and Tennessee (#15).

Most of the rumored 2012 GOP presidential hopefuls come from states in which Wal-Mart and Sam’s Club have made a greater footprint than in Pawlenty’s Minnesota, which has 1 store per 70,546 residents:

· Mike Huckabee, Arkansas, #1 (1 store per 29,744 residents)
· Haley Barbour, Mississippi, #3 (1 per 40,255)
· Mike Pence, Indiana, #17 (1 per 53,586)
· Ron Paul, Texas, #21 (1 per 54,914)
· Sarah Palin, Alaska, #23 (1 per 57,191)
· Newt Gingrich, Georgia, #29 (1 per 61,302)

Only Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania (#37, 1 per 83,545 residents) and Mitt Romney of Massachusetts (#46, 1 per 135,374 residents) come from states with a lower Wal-Mart / Sam’s Club presence than Minnesota.

States with the Highest Number of Wal-Mart and Sam’s Club Stores Per Capita

Rank	State	Wal-Mart	Sam’s Club	Total	Per capita
1	Arkansas	89	7	96	29,744
2	Oklahoma	103	8	111	32,814
3	Mississippi	66	7	73	40,255
4	Alabama	101	13	114	40,894
5	Kansas	61	7	68	41,208
6	New Hampshire	27	4	31	42,445
7	North Dakota	12	3	15	42,765
8	Kentucky	91	8	99	43,124
9	West Virginia	37	5	42	43,202
10	Louisiana	90	12	102	43,243
11	Missouri	119	16	135	43,790
12	Wyoming	10	2	12	44,389
13	New Mexico	37	7	44	45,099
14	Iowa	58	8	66	45,493
15	Tennessee	114	16	130	47,807
16	Maine	22	3	25	52,658
17	Indiana	103	16	119	53,586
18	South Carolina	74	9	83	53,973
19	Nebraska	30	3	33	54,043
20	Nevada	41	7	48	54,170
21	Texas	371	72	443	54,914
22	Utah	41	8	49	55,845
23	Alaska	9	3	12	57,191
24	South Dakota	12	2	14	57,442
25	North Carolina	136	22	158	58,370
26	Wisconsin	83	12	95	59,242
27	Colorado	67	15	82	60,237
28	Arizona	92	15	107	60,749
29	Georgia	136	22	158	61,302
30	Montana	13	2	15	64,496
31	Ohio	144	29	173	66,393
32	Florida	231	43	274	66,892
33	Minnesota	61	13	74	70,546
34	Virginia	93	16	109	71,276
35	Illinois	148	28	176	73,304
36	Idaho	19	1	20	76,191
37	Pennsylvania	126	23	149	83,545
38	Delaware	9	1	10	87,309
39	Michigan	87	26	113	88,526
40	Connecticut	33	3	36	97,257
41	Maryland	44	12	56	100,600
42	Rhode Island	9	1	10	105,079
43	Washington	49	3	52	125,947
44	Oregon	30	0	30	126,335
45	Hawaii	8	2	10	128,820
46	Massachusetts	46	2	48	135,374
47	New Jersey	53	10	63	137,820
48	Vermont	4	0	4	155,318
49	California	177	33	210	175,032
50	New York	93	16	109	178,810
	Total	3,709	596	4,305	72,697

Compiled from Wal-Mart corporate data by Smart Politics. Store data updated April 2010. Based on 2008 U.S. Census population estimates.

Minnesota, with its 73 Target stores (and corporate headquarters in Minneapolis), ranks #1 in Target stores per capita, with one store for every 71,512 residents.

Pawlenty, meanwhile, is the only rumored GOP 2012 presidential hopeful who comes from a ‘Target-heavy’ state.

In fact, only one other potential 2012 candidate hails from a state ranked in the Top 20 of Target stores per capita.

· Ron Paul, Texas, #19 (1 store per 164,371 residents)
· Newt Gingrich, Georgia, #22 (1 per 176,104)
· Mike Pence, Indiana, #25 (1 per 193,236)
· Mitt Romney, Massachusetts, #28 (1 per 196,908)
· Rick Santorum, Pennsylvania, #31 (1 per 210,988)
· Sarah Palin, Alaska, #33 (1 per 228,764)
· Mike Huckabee, Arkansas, #46 (1 per 356,924)
· Haley Barbour, Mississippi, #49 (1 per 489,770).

The fact that Wal-Mart and Sam’s Club would not have a strong presence in the state that is home to Target’s headquarters is not surprising, just as it is not surprising the state home to Wal-Mart (Arkansas) would have a low presence for Target.

But it is Pawlenty himself, hailing from the Target State, who created the Sam’s Club GOP symbol – many years before he burst onto the national political scene when he survived the Democratic tsunami in 2006.

And while Sam’s Club might be an attractive metaphor for a rising GOP star because states with strong GOP bases are the most heavily populated by its (and Wal-Mart’s) stores, in the end it is Target States that determine presidential elections.

Several of the states with the largest number of Target stores per capita are perennial battleground states: Minnesota (#1), Colorado (#2), Iowa (#5), Nevada (#6), Virginia (#8), Florida (#9), and New Hampshire (#10).

Thus, a new, more Target-centric mantra might just be the best strategy for whomever becomes the 2012 Republican nominee.

And perhaps that is why Governor Pawlenty broadened his rhetorical net in his 2010 CPAC address in February:

“Or you know, they’re from places like the heartland, not — you know, they don’t hang out at our Chablis-drinking, Brie-eating parties in San Francisco. You know, they’re a little rough around the edges and they’ve got these homemade signs. And they don’t, you know, dress like us. And they actually enjoy shopping at Wal-Mart and Target — Sam’s Club Republicans.” (emphasis added)

States with the Highest Number of Target Stores Per Capita

Rank	State	Stores	Per Capita
1	Minnesota	73	71,512
2	Colorado	42	117,606
3	Nebraska	14	127,388
4	Arizona	48	135,420
5	Iowa	22	136,480
6	Nevada	19	136,851
7	Montana	7	138,206
8	Virginia	56	138,734
9	Florida	126	145,463
10	New Hampshire	9	146,201
11	Kansas	19	147,481
12	Illinois	86	150,018
13	California	244	150,642
14	Wisconsin	37	152,107
15	Maryland	36	156,489
16	North Dakota	4	160,370
17	South Dakota	5	160,839
18	Missouri	36	164,211
19	Texas	148	164,371
20	Michigan	60	166,724
21	Connecticut	20	175,063
22	Georgia	55	176,104
23	Ohio	63	182,316
24	Washington	35	187,121
25	Indiana	33	193,236
26	Tennessee	32	194,215
27	North Carolina	47	196,222
28	Massachusetts	33	196,908
29	Oregon	19	199,477
30	New Jersey	43	201,922
31	Pennsylvania	59	210,988
32	New Mexico	9	220,484
33	Alaska	3	228,764
34	Alabama	20	233,095
35	Utah	11	248,766
36	South Carolina	18	248,878
37	Idaho	6	253,969
38	Oklahoma	14	260,169
39	Rhode Island	4	262,697
40	Maine	5	263,291
41	Wyoming	2	266,334
42	Louisiana	15	294,053
43	West Virginia	6	302,411
44	New York	64	304,536
45	Kentucky	13	328,403
46	Arkansas	8	356,924
47	Hawaii	3	429,399
48	Delaware	2	436,546
49	Mississippi	6	489,770
50	Vermont	0	N/A
	Total	1,739	208,183

Compiled from Target corporate data by Smart Politics. Based on 2008 U.S. Census population estimates.

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