Are Bachmann, Kline, and Paulsen ‘Too’ Conservative for Their Congressional Districts?

Difference between Kline’s conservative vote ranking and his district’s Partisan Voting Index ranking is the 2nd largest among all House Republicans; Bachmann 14th largest, Paulsen 27th

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s recent addition this week of 6th CD DFL candidate Tarryl Clark to its ‘Red-to-Blue list’ highlights even more clearly to the nation what has been known to Minnesotans for quite some time: Democrats really, really want to defeat Michele Bachmann this November.

But while Bachmann is being targeted partially because Democrats believe she can be beat by their well-financed candidate, the Congresswoman’s seat is being pursued with such gusto by Democrats across Minnesota and the nation in no small part because of her outspoken, very conservative political ideology.

Despite the passion with which Democrats aim to unseat Bachmann, D.C. analysts call Bachmann the favorite to win a third term this November.

First, because Bachmann survived back-to-back victories during the Democratic tsunami years of 2006 and 2008, she is considered a favorite to win again during an election cycle in which most analysts believe there will be a Republican pullback, at least nationally.

‘Survived’ may indeed be the operative word.

For Representative Bachmann was reelected with the narrowest victory margin of any Republican incumbent in 2008, and, at 3.0 points, Bachmann also had the 5th narrowest margin of victory of the 178 GOPers elected into office that November.

Secondly, the Congresswoman’s campaign fundraising prowess is unmatched and has shattered records in the Gopher State. Minnesota Democrats may be cowering in anticipation of what Bachmann’s Q2 2010 numbers will look like next month – numbers that will include her high profile fundraiser with Sarah Palin in April.

But it is the third reason frequently given by those who prognosticate success for Bachmann in 2010 that is perhaps the least persuasive: that Bachmann will win because Minnesota’s 6th Congressional District is the most conservative and Republican-leaning district in the Gopher State.

It is true, of course, that CD6 has the largest Republican tilt in Minnesota. The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI) for the 111th Congress gives the 6th CD a 7-point Republican edge.

(The PVI value in MN-06 means that in the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections, the district performed an average of seven points more Republican than the nation did as a whole. The next closest district in Minnesota was DFLer Collin Peterson’s 7th CD, at +5 Republican).

But what is absent in this shorthand explanation for Bachmann’s favorable reelection odds is any comparative measurement between the extent of the ideological and partisan tilt of her district and the extent of the ideological and partisan tilt of Bachmann herself.

Comparing ideological and partisan measures is a tricky business – the two variables are not synonymous, though they are highly correlated.

The reason they should not be equated with one another is that, for example, a district with a low PVI tilt towards the GOP could theoretically still be a very conservative district, if that district is composed of a significant number of conservative independents and Democrats who sometimes vote Democratic in presidential elections.

But ideology and partisanship are not apples and oranges either, and what can be the basis for comparison are the rankings of members of Congress on both of these dimensions – relative to one another.

Smart Politics therefore conducted an analysis of these two variables – the ideological tilt of U.S. Representative voting records as measured by National Journal’s 2009 composite rankings and the Partisan Voting Index of each Representative’s congressional district, with an eye on how Bachmann’s rankings for each compare to her other 175+ Republican colleagues in the U.S. House.

The analysis found that the difference between Bachmann’s ideological ranking and her district’s partisan ranking was among the Top 15 largest among GOPers in the U.S. House.

The Republican tilt for Minnesota’s 6th Congressional District of +7 points makes it only the 142nd most Republican district in the country. Representative Bachmann, meanwhile, tallied the 28th most conservative score in National Journal’s 2009 vote rankings, or a district partisan vote/Representative ideology ranking differential of +114.

In short: Bachmann is more conservative than 84 percent of her colleagues, but her district tilts Republican more than only 20 percent of those of her fellow House GOPers.

It is this theme – that Bachmann is too conservative for her district that the Clark campaign will hope to hammer home throughout the summer and autumn.

But there is another Republican from Minnesota who has notched an even bigger gap between his personal composite conservative ranking and his district’s PVI: John Kline.

Representative Kline scored the second largest differential among all Republican members in the U.S. House between these two rankings.

The Republican tilt for Kline’s 2nd CD of +4 points makes it only the 197th most Republican district in the country, with Kline receiving a composite ranking of the 32nd most conservative Representative in the U.S. House, for a district partisan vote/Representative ideology ranking differential of +165.

Kline therefore had a voting record in 2009 that was more conservative than 82 percent of his fellow Republicans, but represents a district that tilts more Republican than just 17 percent of GOP districts across the country.

Only Joseph Cao, the freshman Republican from the extremely Democratic 2nd District of Louisiana scores a larger difference. (Although Cao had the fourth least conservative ranking among House Republicans in 2009, his district has a +25-point Democratic tilt, making it the 402nd least Republican district in the country on the PVI index).

While no one has ever mistaken Congressman Kline for a liberal, or even a moderate, he does not endure even a fraction of the criticism from the left as Bachmann for what is essentially an equally conservative voting record, even though Kline represents a more Democratic district than the more outspoken and media-friendly Congresswoman from Stillwater.

Not far behind Bachmann was Erik Paulsen from the state’s 3rd Congressional District.

Paulsen scored the 144th most conservative voting record in the House in 2009, while his district’s PVI ranking (even – no GOP or Democratic tilt) was only the 237th most Republican in the country, for a district partisan vote/Representative ideology ranking differential of +93, or the 27th highest in the GOP caucus.

Why Minnesota’s U.S. Representatives are conspicuously represented at the top of this list is a bit of a mystery. Only California had more Representatives scoring in the Top 30 (with five), though the Golden State has 19 Republicans in its U.S. House delegation.

Perhaps there is a new breed of Republicans rising to power in the Upper Midwest: Wisconsin’s GOP star Paul Ryan (#5) and Iowa’s Tom Latham (#11) and Steve King (#19) all cracked the Top 20 as well.

Congressional District Partisan Vote / Representative Ideology Ranking Differential (Top 50 GOPers)

Rank	Name	District	Ideology rank	PVI rank	Difference
1	Jospeh Cao	LA-02	175	402	+227
2	John Kline	MN-02	32	197	+165
3	Don Manzullo	IL-16	62	214	+152
4	David Dreier	CA-26	66	203	+137
5	Paul Ryan	WI-01	89	218	+129
6	Peter Roskam	IL-06	118	243	+125
7	Randy Forbes	VA-04	66	191	+125
8	Pete Sessions	TX-32	12	134	+122
9	Michael Castle	DE-AL	183	303	+120
9	Mark Kirk	IL-10	174	294	+120
11	Tom Latham	IA-04	122	241	+119
12	John Shadegg	AZ-03	1	119	+118
13	Jim Gerlach	PA-06	159	274	+115
14	Michele Bachmann	MN-06	28	142	+114
15	Mike Rogers	MI-08	111	224	+113
16	Pat Tiberi	OH-12	132	244	+112
17	Elton Gallegly	CA-24	87	198	+111
18	George Radanovich	CA-19	16	126	+110
19	Steve King	IA-05	9	118	+109
20	Bill Posey	FL-15	62	170	+108
21	Todd Akin	MO-02	11	117	+106
22	Brian Bilbray	CA-50	101	204	+103
22	Bill Young	FL-10	128	231	+103
24	Tom McClintock	CA-04	9	108	+99
25	Mike Pence	IN-06	8	106	+98
26	Joe Pitts	PA-16	38	132	+94
27	Erik Paulsen	MN-03	144	237	+93
28	Bob Latta	OH-05	27	120	+93
29	John Mica	FL-07	58	149	+91
29	Thaddeus McCotter	MI-11	147	238	+91
29	Charlie Dent	PA-15	166	257	+91
32	Scott Garrett	NJ-05	55	145	+90
32	Dave Reichert	WA-08	178	268	+90
34	Frank LoBiondo	NJ-02	159	245	+86
35	Eric Cantor	VA-07	37	122	+85
36	Frank Wolf	VA-10	131	215	+84
37	Pete Olson	TX-22	1	84	+83
38	Ed Royce	CA-40	52	133	+81
39	Trent Franks	AZ-02	1	80	+79
39	Dean Heller	NV-02	99	178	+79
41	Dan Lungren	CA-03	98	175	+77
42	Tom Rooney	FL-16	114	188	+74
43	Buck McKeon	CA-25	94	166	+72
44	John Campbell	CA-48	105	173	+68
45	Kenny Marchant	TX-24	26	93	+67
46	Wally Herger	CA-02	31	97	+66
46	Ken Calvert	CA-44	96	162	+66
46	Mary Bono Mack	CA-45	135	201	+66
49	Duncan Hunter	CA-52	48	114	+66
50	Dana Rohrabacher	CA-46	110	174	+64
50	Fred Upton	MI-06	172	236	+64
50	Sue Myrick	NC-09	34	98	+64

Ideology ranking from National Journal’s 2009 U.S. House composite conservative ratings. Partisan Voting Index from Cook Political Report. Table compiled by Smart Politics.

Follow Smart Politics on Twitter.