Safety First

Although freshman Republican U.S. Representatives Sean Duffy (WI-07) and Reid Ribble (WI-08) are considered vulnerable by many D.C. prognosticators this November, redistricting has not spelled trouble for congressional incumbents in the Badger State over the last six decades. Since 1952, only one of 52 incumbents went down in the general election in years ending in ‘2’ after redistricting – and in that case only because two incumbents were paired together in the same district. In 1972, 15-term Republican Alvin O’Konski lost the state’s 7th CD race to two term Democrat David Obey by 25.6 points. O’Konski had previously served in the 10th CD which was eliminated after reapportionment. Meanwhile, Wisconsin congressional incumbents lost 16 of 208 races in cycles ending in ‘4,’ ‘6,’ ‘8,’ and ‘0’ during this span (7.7 percent) or nearly four times the rate as during redistricting years (1.9 percent).