Will the Real Battleground States Please Stand Up?
An analysis of major media outlets’ election projection maps finds few can agree on a definitive list of toss-up states in the 2012 presidential race
A recent Smart Politics report documented how the broadcast media can’t always agree on what to call the handful of competitive states in the 2012 presidential election – from “swing states,” to “battleground states,” to “purple states,” to “toss-up states.”
Nor are the nation’s biggest media outlets in agreement when it comes to deciding on which states should be tagged with these labels.
In fact, they range from as few as three states to as many as 16.
A Smart Politics review of the 2012 electoral projection maps released by 12 major media outlets finds they yield 10 different lists designating the most competitive states to watch this cycle (e.g. battleground / swing / purple / toss-up).
The 12 news outlets under analysis for this report are ABC, CNN, Huffington Post, MSNBC, National Journal, New York Times, PBS, POLITICO, Real Clear Politics, USA Today, Wall Street Journal, and Washington Post.
Data from their electoral projection maps was harvested on August 2nd.
The number of competitive states deemed “toss-ups” ranged from a low of just three at the Huffington Post (Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia) to a high of 16 at National Journal (Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin).
USA Today and the Wall Street Journal listed 12 states with POLITICO at 10, MSNBC at nine, ABC, New York Times, Real Clear Politics, and Washington Post at eight, and CNN and PBS at seven.
The number of electoral votes considered up for grabs peaked at 193 with National Journal followed by 148 at USA Today, 147 at the Wall Street Journal, 126 at POLITICO, 110 at MSNBC, 100 at ABC and Real Clear Politics, 95 at the New York Times and Washington Post, 85 at CNN and PBS, and 57 at the Huffington Post.
Only two pairs of media outlets concurred on which states should be considered toss-ups at this stage of the campaign:
· CNN and PBS agreed on seven states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Virginia.
· ABC and Real Clear Politics were in agreement on eight states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia.
Toss-Up States by Media Outlet in 2012 Presidential Electoral Projection Maps
|
State
|
ABC
|
CNN
|
Huff Post
|
MSNBC
|
Nat’l J
|
NYT
|
PBS
|
Politico
|
RCP
|
USA Today
|
Wash Post
|
WSJ
|
|
AZ
|
X
|
X
|
||||||||||
|
CO
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
|
|
FL
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
|
IA
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
|
|
IN
|
X
|
|||||||||||
|
MI
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
||||||||
|
MN
|
X
|
|||||||||||
|
MO
|
X
|
X
|
||||||||||
|
NC
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
||||
|
NH
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
|
|
NM
|
X
|
X
|
||||||||||
|
NV
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
|
|
OH
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
|
|
PA
|
X
|
X
|
||||||||||
|
VA
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
|
WI
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
|
X
|
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
|||
|
EC Votes
|
100
|
85
|
57
|
110
|
193
|
95
|
85
|
126
|
100
|
148
|
95
|
147
|
|
# States
|
8
|
7
|
3
|
9
|
16
|
8
|
7
|
10
|
8
|
12
|
8
|
12
|
Table compiled by Smart Politics.
Only two states appeared on the lists of each of the dozen media outlets under analysis: Florida and Virginia.
In 2008, Florida was the fifth most narrowly decided contest (+2.8 points for Obama) behind Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, and Montana while Virginia was eighth (+6.3 points for Obama).
Another five states were listed by 11 outlets: Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Ohio. Huffington Post opted to rate each under its “Leans Obama” category instead.
After this group came North Carolina which appeared on eight lists, followed by Wisconsin at seven, Michigan at four, Arizona, Missouri, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania at two, and Indiana and Minnesota at one.
Michigan was listed by National Journal, POLITICO, USA Today and the Wall Street Journal.
Arizona and Missouri made the cut at National Journal and the Wall Street Journal while New Mexico and Pennsylvania did so at National Journal and USA Today.
National Journal was the only outlet under analysis to designate Indiana and Minnesota as battlegrounds in 2012.
Most Commonly Listed 2012 Presidential Battleground States Across 12 Media Outlets
|
State
|
Total
|
|
Florida
|
12
|
|
Virginia
|
12
|
|
Colorado
|
11
|
|
Iowa
|
11
|
|
Nevada
|
11
|
|
New Hampshire
|
11
|
|
Ohio
|
11
|
|
North Carolina
|
8
|
|
Wisconsin
|
7
|
|
Michigan
|
4
|
|
Arizona
|
2
|
|
Missouri
|
2
|
|
New Mexico
|
2
|
|
Pennsylvania
|
2
|
|
Indiana
|
1
|
|
Minnesota
|
1
|
Note: Outlets under analysis are ABC, CNN, Huffington Post, MSNBC, National Journal, PBS, POLITICO, Real Clear Politics, USA Today, Washington Post and the Wall Street Journal. Table compiled by Smart Politics.
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