Thompson Wins Most Competitive Wisconsin GOP US Senate Primary Since 1957

The former governor’s 3.1-point win over Eric Hovde is the sixth closest in party history out of 37 contests

Tommy Thompson’s win in the Wisconsin U.S. Senate Republican primary Tuesday evening sets in motion the general election matchup against Tammy Baldwin that was expected several months ago.

In the intervening months, the former four-term Wisconsin governor withstood a surge in the polls by businessman Eric Hovde as well as former U.S. Representative Mark Neumann (perhaps aiding in his victory) to eke out a 3.1-point win in the Badger State.

Thompson won with 34.0 percent of the vote followed by Hovde at 30.9 percent, Neumann at 22.8 percent and Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald at 12.4 percent.

Thompson’s win caps off one of the most competitive Republican primaries for a U.S. Senate seat in state history:

· The 3.1-point margin is the sixth narrowest among the 37 such Republican contests that have been conducted in Wisconsin since 1914 and the closest since a special election in the state 55 years ago in 1957.

· Thompson’s 34.0 percent of the vote is the fourth lowest among GOP primary winners, just ahead of Fred Clausen in 1940 (31.2 percent), Francis McGovern in 1914 (32.2 percent), and Alexander Wiley in 1938 (32.9 percent).

· Only three other contests in GOP U.S. Senate primary history have resulted in three candidates receiving at least 22 percent of the vote: in 1914, 1980, and 2004.

Prior to Tuesday’s contest, the average margin of victory across the previous 36 cycles of Republican U.S. Senate primaries was 42.5 points with the winner averaging 66.1 percent of the vote.

The narrowest margin of victory in a Wisconsin GOP U.S. Senate primary contest over the past 98 years took place in 1946.

In that cycle, Joe McCarthy made his second consecutive run at a senate seat and defeated four-term incumbent Robert La Follette, Jr. by 1.2 points, or 5,378 votes – 47.2 to 46.0 percent.

McCarthy had been trounced in his previous effort to unseat fellow Republican Alexander Wiley two years prior. Wiley nearly doubled up on McCarthy with a 25.4-point victory – 52.7 to 27.3 percent.

Four other Republican U.S. Senate primaries have been decided by less than three points in the Badger State:

· 1918: Irvine Lenroot (50.8 percent) defeated James Thompson (49.2 percent) by 1.6 points.

· 1932: John Chappel (50.8 percent) defeated incumbent John Blaine (49.2 percent) by 1.6 points.

· 1956: Alexander Wiley (48.9 percent) defeated Glenn Davis (46.7 percent) by 2.2 points.

· 1957 (special): Walter Kohler (34.4 percent) defeated Glenn Davis (31.7 percent) by 2.7 points in a seven-candidate field after the death of Senator McCarthy.

Wisconsin GOP: Battered But Not Bruised?

With Republicans now settled on a nominee after a grueling primary campaign, the party can finally turn its attention over the next two and a half months to Democratic nominee Tammy Baldwin, who ran uncontested for her party’s nod.

Despite the brutal campaign, competitive U.S. Senate primaries have tended not to hurt the Republican Party when it comes to the general election.

Of the 10 such senate primaries that have been decided by less than 10 points, the victor has gone on to win the general election in November on seven occasions (in 1918, 1920, 1926, 1938, 1946, 1956, and 1980) while losing just three times (in 1914, 1932, and 1957).

By contrast, of the eight cycles in which the Republican primary winner ran uncontested, the candidate lost the race seven times: in 1934, 1958, 1964, 1970, 1976, 1998, and 2006. (Only one-term incumbent Robert Kasten took an uncontested primary win en route to a general election victory in 1986).

Hovde had hoped to become to become just the third Republican and fifth candidate overall to be elected to the U.S. Senate in Wisconsin without previously holding political office – joining current GOP Senator Ron Johnson, a businessman who was elected in 2010.

Mark Neumann’s failure to launch a successful U.S. Senate campaign was not surprising given the political history of ex- or sitting U.S. Representatives. With his primary loss just 2 of 16 former or sitting members of the U.S. House from Wisconsin have won U.S. Senate seats (Irvine Lenroot in 1918 and Robert Kasten in 1980), with Rep. Baldwin’s fate still pending.

The 580,340 voters in the contest is the fourth largest raw number of votes cast in a GOP Wisconsin U.S. Senate primary behind 1952 (759,273), 1932 (687,033), and 2010 (595,830).

Republicans in Wisconsin are attempting to hold both U.S. Senate seats for the first time since 1957 when Alexander Wiley and Joseph McCarthy were in office – the eighth longest such drought in the nation behind Louisiana (1872), Florida (1875), Arkansas (1885), Montana (1911), Rhode Island (1935), Massachusetts (1953), and Michigan (1955).

Wisconsin Republican U.S. Senate Primary Winners and Margin of Victory, 1914-2012

Year	Winner	Percent	2nd Place	Percent	MoV
2012	Tommy Thompson	34.0	Eric Hovde	30.9	3.5
2010	Ron Johnson	84.7	Dave Westlake	10.3	74.4
2006	Robert Lorge	99.7	(unopposed)	0.0	99.7
2004	Tim Michels	42.4	Russ Darrow	30.1	12.3
2000	John Gillespie	68.0	Bill Lorge	20.6	47.4
1998	Mark Neumann	99.7	(unopposed)	0.0	99.7
1994	Robert Welch	47.4	Matthew Gunderson	22.4	25.0
1992	Robert Kasten	80.5	Roger Faulkner	19.5	61.0
1988	Susan Engeleiter	57.0	Stephen King	40.5	16.5
1986	Robert Kasten	100.0	(unopposed)	0.0	100.0
1982	Scott McCallum	67.7	Paul Brewer	32.3	35.4
1980	Robert Kasten	36.8	Terry Kohler	29.0	7.8
1976	Stanley York	100.0	(unopposed)	0.0	100.0
1974	Tom Petri	85.2	James Sigl	14.8	70.4
1970	John Erickson	100.0	(unopposed)	0.0	100.0
1968	Jerris Leonard	50.8	Robert Johnson	28.0	22.8
1964	Wilbur Renk	100.0	(unopposed)	0.0	100.0
1962	Alexander Wiley	80.3	Arlyn Wollenburg	19.7	60.6
1958	Roland Steinle	100.0	(unopposed)	0.0	100.0
1957	Walter Kohler	34.4	Glenn Davis	31.7	2.7
1956	Alexander Wiley	48.9	Glenn Davis	46.7	2.2
1952	Joseph McCarthy	67.9	Leonard Schmitt	28.1	39.8
1950	Alexander Wiley	77.8	Edward Finan	22.2	55.6
1946	Joseph McCarthy	47.2	Robert La Follette Jr.	46.0	1.2
1944	Alexander Wiley	52.7	Joseph McCarthy	27.3	25.4
1940	Fred Clausen	31.2	John Koehler	18.5	12.7
1938	Alexander Wiley	32.9	John Chapple	26.4	6.5
1934	John Chappel	100.0	(unopposed)	0.0	100.0
1932	John Chappel	50.8	John Blaine	49.2	1.6
1928	Robert La Follette, Jr.	66.7	George Mead	33.3	33.4
1926	John Blaine	50.1	Irvine Lenroot	44.7	5.4
1925	Robert La Follette, Jr.	55.9	Roy Wilcox	25.7	30.2
1922	Robert La Follette	72.2	William Ganfield	27.8	44.4
1920	Irvine Lenroot	46.3	James Thompson	40.9	5.4
1918	Irvine Lenroot	50.8	James Thompson	49.2	1.6
1916	Robert La Follette	60.0	Malcolm Jeffris	40.0	20.0
1914	Francis McGovern	32.2	Levi Bancroft	22.7	9.5

Table compiled by Smart Politics with data from Wisconsin Blue Books.

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