Battleground State Maps Expand Slightly from a Month Ago
The selection of Paul Ryan as GOP VP nominee moves the needle on Wisconsin but few other states in the presidential race according to a dozen media outlets
After five weeks and two national conventions little has changed in the media’s estimation as to which states are going to decide the presidential election in November.
In early August, Smart Politics issued a report compiling data from 2012 electoral projection maps released by 12 major media outlets.
That report found 10 different lists among the dozen states designating the most competitive states to watch this cycle with only two states appearing on all 12 maps under analysis: Florida and Virginia.
(The 12 news outlets under analysis are ABC, CNN, Huffington Post, MSNBC, National Journal, New York Times, PBS, POLITICO, Real Clear Politics, USA Today, Wall Street Journal, and Washington Post).
Over the last month, nine of the 12 outlets have not altered their respective battleground state maps.
Three outlets, however, have decided the race for president is getting tighter and thus added states to their previously more conservative tally of 2012 battlegrounds: CNN, Huffington Post, and Real Clear Politics.
CNN increased the number of battleground states on their map from seven to nine with the addition of North Carolina and Wisconsin.
The outlet now has 110 Electoral College votes up for grabs compared to just 85 last month.
Huffington Post, which had previously only listed three states as toss ups (Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia), has added four more to their map: Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, and Wisconsin.
The popular left-leaning online news site had been the last holdout to label Colorado, Iowa, and Ohio as presidential toss ups – previously calling all three Obama leans.
That means Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, and Virginia are now all universally agreed upon by these 12 prominent outlets to be toss ups in the 2012 cycle.
At Real Clear Politics, Michigan and Wisconsin have been added into the mix, with 10 states now labeled toss ups by the poll-watching outlet.
Real Clear Politics is one of just five of these outlets to list Michigan among the battleground states along with National Journal, POLITICO, USA Today and the Wall Street Journal.
The selection of Paul Ryan as Mitt Romney’s running-mate undoubtedly tightened the race in the Badger State in the eyes of CNN, Huffington Post, and Real Clear Politics with Wisconsin now in the second tier of the list of most-mentioned states on these battleground maps with 10, joining New Hampshire (11), Nevada (11), and North Carolina (9).
Only ABC and PBS have yet to list Wisconsin as a battleground while the Huffington Post remains the last holdout on New Hampshire and Nevada.
The New York Times, PBS, and Washington Post currently do not list North Carolina in the swing state category.
Overall, the average number of Electoral College votes falling into the toss up category increased from 111.8 in early August to 119.6 across these dozen outlets.
Most Commonly Listed 2012 Presidential Battleground States Across 12 Media Outlets (September Edition)
|
State
|
Total
|
|
Colorado
|
12
|
|
Florida
|
12
|
|
Iowa
|
12
|
|
Ohio
|
12
|
|
Virginia
|
12
|
|
Nevada
|
11
|
|
New Hampshire
|
11
|
|
Wisconsin
|
10
|
|
North Carolina
|
9
|
|
Michigan
|
5
|
|
Arizona
|
2
|
|
Missouri
|
2
|
|
New Mexico
|
2
|
|
Pennsylvania
|
2
|
|
Indiana
|
1
|
|
Minnesota
|
1
|
Note: Outlets under analysis are ABC, CNN, Huffington Post, MSNBC, National Journal, PBS, POLITICO, Real Clear Politics, USA Today, Washington Post and the Wall Street Journal. Table compiled by Smart Politics.
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Presidential elections don’t have to be this way.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Every vote, everywhere, would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections. No more distorting and divisive red and blue state maps. There would no longer be a handful of ‘battleground’ states where voters and policies are more important than those of the voters in more than 3/4ths of the states that now are just ‘spectators’ and ignored after the conventions.
When the bill is enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes– enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538), all the electoral votes from the enacting states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states and DC.
The bill uses the power given to each state by the Founding Fathers in the Constitution to change how they award their electoral votes for President. Historically, virtually all of the major changes in the method of electing the President, including ending the requirement that only men who owned substantial property could vote and 48 current state-by-state winner-take-all laws, have come about by state legislative action.
In Gallup polls since 1944, only about 20% of the public has supported the current system of awarding all of a state’s electoral votes to the presidential candidate who receives the most votes in each separate state (with about 70% opposed and about 10% undecided). Support for a national popular vote is strong among Republicans, Democrats, and Independent voters, as well as every demographic group in virtually every state surveyed in recent polls in closely divided Battleground states: CO – 68%, FL – 78%, IA 75%, MI – 73%, MO – 70%, NH – 69%, NV – 72%, NM– 76%, NC – 74%, OH – 70%, PA – 78%, VA – 74%, and WI – 71%; in Small states (3 to 5 electoral votes): AK – 70%, DC – 76%, DE – 75%, ID – 77%, ME – 77%, MT – 72%, NE 74%, NH – 69%, NV – 72%, NM – 76%, OK – 81%, RI – 74%, SD – 71%, UT – 70%, VT – 75%, WV – 81%, and WY – 69%; in Southern and Border states: AR – 80%,, KY- 80%, MS – 77%, MO – 70%, NC – 74%, OK – 81%, SC – 71%, TN – 83%, VA – 74%, and WV – 81%; and in other states polled: AZ – 67%, CA – 70%, CT – 74%, MA – 73%, MN – 75%, NY – 79%, OR – 76%, and WA – 77%. Americans believe that the candidate who receives the most votes should win.
The bill has passed 31 state legislative chambers in 21 states. The bill has been enacted by 9 jurisdictions possessing 132 electoral votes – 49% of the 270 necessary to go into effect.
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A survey of Minnesota voters showed 75% overall support for a national popular vote for President.
Support was 84% among Democrats, 69% among Republicans, and 68% among others.
By age, support was 74% among 18-29 year olds, 73% among 30-45 year olds, 77% among 46-65 year olds, and 75% for those older than 65.
By gender, support was 83% among women and 67% among men.
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