Projections: 2012 Upper Midwestern U.S. House Races

More than a half-dozen contests in the five-state region could be decided by single digits

The Upper Midwest has been no stranger to shake-ups to its U.S. House delegations with four Democratic pick-ups in 2006 (IA-01, IA-02, MN-01, WI-08) and five Republican pick-ups in 2010 (MN-08, ND-AL, SD-AL, WI-07, WI-08).

While there will likely not be that much turnover in the five-state, 22-seat region in 2012, there are expected to be several competitive races decided by single digits.

In Iowa, there are two marquee matchups eight-term Democratic U.S. Representative Leonard Boswell and nine-term Republican U.S. Representative Tom Latham in an incumbent vs. incumbent matchup in the 3rd CD due to the Hawkeye State losing a seat in Congress after reapportionment.

Boswell inherited a larger swath of his electorate than did Latham, but Latham raised significantly more money.

If Boswell escapes with a win, as he has many times over his congressional career, Democrats still have to content with Steve King in the 4th CD if they want to sweep the state for the first time in history.

King is facing Christie Vilsack who is hoping to become the first woman in Iowa ever elected to Congress. Iowa is one of six states that has only elected men to the U.S. House – along with Alaska, Delaware, Mississippi, North Dakota, and Vermont.

King holds the advantage in demographics, but Vilsack nearly matched the Republican incumbent dollar for dollar in fundraising and has a very strong name recognition as the former First Lady of the state.

In Minnesota, the state could have three races decided by single digits for the first time since 1994 with Republican incumbents Chip Cravaack (MN-08), Michele Bachmann (MN-06), and John Kline (MN-02) facing strong DFL challengers.

Kline is expected to have the easiest path back to D.C. with Bachmann likely to eke out a win as she has done in past cycles (Bachmann had the narrowest margin of victory among winning GOP incumbents in 2008, and fifth narrowest in 2010).

In the 8th CD, Rick Nolan seeks to become the 10th Minnesota U.S. Representative to return to the U.S. House after a gap in service – although the largest such gap has only been 14 years (Nolan has been out of office for 32).

Pick-ups are not expected in North Dakota, South Dakota, or Wisconsin, although an unexpected Democratic surge could narrow the margin in Wisconsin’s 7th and 8th districts to the single-digit range.

Smart Politics 2012 Upper Midwest U.S. House Projections

* This is an incumbent vs. incumbent matchup, in a district currently held by Democrat Leonard Boswell.

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