Minnesota Becomes 1st State Outside South to Vote Democratic in 10 Straight Presidential Elections
Minnesota joins Virginia as the only states with 10+ consecutive cycle stretches backing Democratic and Republican presidential nominees in state history
When will Republicans give up on Minnesota?
Despite chatter late in the presidential campaign that the Gopher State was in play for the Mitt Romney campaign – as perhaps part of an alternate path to 270 electoral votes – Barack Obama ended up carrying the state for the Democratic Party once again by a 7.7-point margin.
That marked the tenth consecutive cycle the GOP has lost Minnesota – the party’s longest drought in any state across the nation.
However, so long as its presidential races continue to be decided by single digits, the Gopher State will likely always remain on the radar of the GOP.
Even if the state remains the party’s fool’s gold of the north.
A Smart Politics analysis finds that Minnesota – at 10 cycles – now has the longest consecutive Democratic winning streak in presidential elections outside of the south since the founding of the modern Democratic Party in 1828.
Prior to the state voting for Barack Obama in 2012, Minnesota was tied at nine straight cycles with Missouri, which voted Democratic from 1828 through 1860 (twice for Andrew Jackson and Martin Van Buren, as well as James Polk, Lewis Cass, Franklin Pierce, James Buchanan, and Stephen Douglas).
Minnesota has now voted Democratic in 13 of the last 14 presidential elections dating back to 1960 and 18 of 21 since 1932.
Republicans have generally managed to be competitive during the state’s current 10-cycle streak, with the average Democratic victory margin at 7.6 points and six contests decided by less than eight points:
· Jimmy Carter defeated Ronald Reagan by 3.9 points in 1980.
· Native son Walter Mondale defeated Reagan by 0.2 points in 1984.
· Michael Dukakis defeated George H.W. Bush by 7.0 points in 1988.
· Al Gore defeated George W. Bush by 2.4 points in 2000.
· John Kerry defeated Bush by 3.5 points in 2004.
· Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney by 7.7 points in 2012.
The Top 11 all-time longest periods of consecutive Democratic victories in presidential elections stretch across the nation’s southern region, with Georgia notching the longest period of 24 cycles from 1868 to 1960, followed by Arkansas at 23 (1876-1964), Alabama and Mississippi at 18 (1876-1944), Louisiana and South Carolina at 17 (1880-1944), and Texas at 13 (1872-1924).
A total of 16 states are currently in the midst of their longest ever period of voting for Democratic presidential candidates.
Minnesota leads the way at 10 straight cycles (1976-2012), followed by Hawaii, Massachusetts, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Washington, and Wisconsin with seven (1988-2012), and California, Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Vermont with six (1992-2012).
Minnesota also now holds the distinction of being just one of two states, along with Virginia, that has both compiled 10+ consecutive cycles backing both Democratic and Republican presidential nominees.
From statehood until 1908, the Gopher State voted Republican 13 cycles in a row, with Progressive nominee Teddy Roosevelt ending the streak in 1912. (Minnesota would go on to back the GOP nominee for the next four cycles through 1928).
Virginia is tied for the eighth longest Democratic streak at 12 cycles (1876-1924) and recorded a string of 10 cycles voting for the GOP nominee (1960-2004).
Minnesota’s 13-cycle GOP streak is tied with Pennsylvania for #9 all-time behind Vermont at 27 (1856-1960), and Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Rhode Island at 14 (all 1856-1908).
Nine states have rattled off 12 consecutive cycles voting for the Republican nominee – all beginning with Richard Nixon in 1968: Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming.
Longest Democratic Party Winning Streak in Presidential Elections by State
State
|
Region
|
Period
|
Cycles
|
Georgia
|
South
|
1868-1960
|
24
|
Arkansas
|
South
|
1876-1964
|
23
|
Alabama
|
South
|
1876-1944
|
18
|
Mississippi
|
South
|
1876-1944
|
18
|
Louisiana
|
South
|
1880-1944
|
17
|
South Carolina
|
South
|
1880-1944
|
17
|
Texas
|
South
|
1872-1924
|
13
|
North Carolina
|
South
|
1876-1924
|
12
|
Virginia
|
South
|
1876-1924
|
12
|
Tennessee
|
South
|
1872-1916
|
12
|
Florida
|
South
|
1880-1924
|
11
|
Minnesota
|
Midwest
|
1976-2012
|
10
|
Missouri
|
Midwest
|
1828-1860
|
9
|
Kentucky
|
South
|
1864-1892
|
8
|
Illinois
|
Midwest
|
1828-1856
|
8
|
Hawaii
|
West
|
1988-2012
|
7
|
Massachusetts
|
Northeast
|
1988-2012
|
7
|
New York
|
Northeast
|
1988-2012
|
7
|
Oregon
|
West
|
1988-2012
|
7
|
Rhode Island
|
Northeast
|
1988-2012
|
7
|
Washington
|
West
|
1988-2012
|
7
|
Wisconsin
|
Midwest
|
1988-2012
|
7
|
Maryland
|
South
|
1868-1892
|
7
|
California
|
West
|
1992-2012
|
6
|
Connecticut
|
Northeast
|
1992-2012
|
6
|
Delaware
|
South
|
1992-2012
|
6
|
Maine
|
Northeast
|
1992-2012
|
6
|
Michigan
|
Midwest
|
1992-2012
|
6
|
New Jersey
|
Northeast
|
1992-2012
|
6
|
Pennsylvania
|
Northeast
|
1992-2012
|
6
|
Vermont
|
Northeast
|
1992-2012
|
6
|
West Virginia
|
South
|
1932-1952
|
6
|
New Hampshire
|
Northeast
|
1832-1852
|
6
|
Arizona
|
West
|
1932-1948
|
5
|
Idaho
|
West
|
1932-1948
|
5
|
Montana
|
West
|
1932-1948
|
5
|
Nevada
|
West
|
1932-1948
|
5
|
New Mexico
|
West
|
1932-1948
|
5
|
Oklahoma
|
South
|
1932-1948
|
5
|
Utah
|
West
|
1932-1948
|
5
|
Iowa
|
Midwest
|
1988-2000
|
4
|
Indiana
|
Midwest
|
1844-1856
|
4
|
Ohio
|
Midwest
|
1932-1940
|
3
|
Wyoming
|
West
|
1932-1940
|
3
|
Colorado
|
West
|
1908-1916
|
3
|
Nebraska
|
Midwest
|
1908-1916
|
3
|
South Dakota
|
Midwest
|
1932-1936
|
2
|
Kansas
|
Midwest
|
1912-1916; 1932-1936
|
2
|
North Dakota
|
Midwest
|
1912-1916; 1932-1936
|
2
|
Alaska
|
West
|
1964
|
1
|
Regional designations as per the U.S. Census. Table compiled by Smart Politics.
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Although technically not a state, DC has trended Dem for longer, since the 23rd amendment in ’61 (so since the ’64 election)
Illinois also has six consecutive victories for Democrats (1992-2012).
Correct – but Illinois is not in the midst of its longest ever Democratic winning streak (the context of the statement above). Illinois had an 8-cycle streak from 1828 to 1856.
3 super high profile police killings (2 whites killing blacks). I thought post WW2 Democratic Party was progressive?