Minnesota Becomes 1st State Outside South to Vote Democratic in 10 Straight Presidential Elections

Minnesota joins Virginia as the only states with 10+ consecutive cycle stretches backing Democratic and Republican presidential nominees in state history

When will Republicans give up on Minnesota?

Despite chatter late in the presidential campaign that the Gopher State was in play for the Mitt Romney campaign – as perhaps part of an alternate path to 270 electoral votes – Barack Obama ended up carrying the state for the Democratic Party once again by a 7.7-point margin.

That marked the tenth consecutive cycle the GOP has lost Minnesota – the party’s longest drought in any state across the nation.

However, so long as its presidential races continue to be decided by single digits, the Gopher State will likely always remain on the radar of the GOP.

Even if the state remains the party’s fool’s gold of the north.

A Smart Politics analysis finds that Minnesota – at 10 cycles – now has the longest consecutive Democratic winning streak in presidential elections outside of the south since the founding of the modern Democratic Party in 1828.

Prior to the state voting for Barack Obama in 2012, Minnesota was tied at nine straight cycles with Missouri, which voted Democratic from 1828 through 1860 (twice for Andrew Jackson and Martin Van Buren, as well as James Polk, Lewis Cass, Franklin Pierce, James Buchanan, and Stephen Douglas).

Minnesota has now voted Democratic in 13 of the last 14 presidential elections dating back to 1960 and 18 of 21 since 1932.

Republicans have generally managed to be competitive during the state’s current 10-cycle streak, with the average Democratic victory margin at 7.6 points and six contests decided by less than eight points:

· Jimmy Carter defeated Ronald Reagan by 3.9 points in 1980.
· Native son Walter Mondale defeated Reagan by 0.2 points in 1984.
· Michael Dukakis defeated George H.W. Bush by 7.0 points in 1988.
· Al Gore defeated George W. Bush by 2.4 points in 2000.
· John Kerry defeated Bush by 3.5 points in 2004.
· Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney by 7.7 points in 2012.

The Top 11 all-time longest periods of consecutive Democratic victories in presidential elections stretch across the nation’s southern region, with Georgia notching the longest period of 24 cycles from 1868 to 1960, followed by Arkansas at 23 (1876-1964), Alabama and Mississippi at 18 (1876-1944), Louisiana and South Carolina at 17 (1880-1944), and Texas at 13 (1872-1924).

A total of 16 states are currently in the midst of their longest ever period of voting for Democratic presidential candidates.

Minnesota leads the way at 10 straight cycles (1976-2012), followed by Hawaii, Massachusetts, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Washington, and Wisconsin with seven (1988-2012), and California, Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Vermont with six (1992-2012).

Minnesota also now holds the distinction of being just one of two states, along with Virginia, that has both compiled 10+ consecutive cycles backing both Democratic and Republican presidential nominees.

From statehood until 1908, the Gopher State voted Republican 13 cycles in a row, with Progressive nominee Teddy Roosevelt ending the streak in 1912. (Minnesota would go on to back the GOP nominee for the next four cycles through 1928).

Virginia is tied for the eighth longest Democratic streak at 12 cycles (1876-1924) and recorded a string of 10 cycles voting for the GOP nominee (1960-2004).

Minnesota’s 13-cycle GOP streak is tied with Pennsylvania for #9 all-time behind Vermont at 27 (1856-1960), and Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Rhode Island at 14 (all 1856-1908).

Nine states have rattled off 12 consecutive cycles voting for the Republican nominee – all beginning with Richard Nixon in 1968: Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming.

Longest Democratic Party Winning Streak in Presidential Elections by State

State	Region	Period	Cycles
Georgia	South	1868-1960	24
Arkansas	South	1876-1964	23
Alabama	South	1876-1944	18
Mississippi	South	1876-1944	18
Louisiana	South	1880-1944	17
South Carolina	South	1880-1944	17
Texas	South	1872-1924	13
North Carolina	South	1876-1924	12
Virginia	South	1876-1924	12
Tennessee	South	1872-1916	12
Florida	South	1880-1924	11
Minnesota	Midwest	1976-2012	10
Missouri	Midwest	1828-1860	9
Kentucky	South	1864-1892	8
Illinois	Midwest	1828-1856	8
Hawaii	West	1988-2012	7
Massachusetts	Northeast	1988-2012	7
New York	Northeast	1988-2012	7
Oregon	West	1988-2012	7
Rhode Island	Northeast	1988-2012	7
Washington	West	1988-2012	7
Wisconsin	Midwest	1988-2012	7
Maryland	South	1868-1892	7
California	West	1992-2012	6
Connecticut	Northeast	1992-2012	6
Delaware	South	1992-2012	6
Maine	Northeast	1992-2012	6
Michigan	Midwest	1992-2012	6
New Jersey	Northeast	1992-2012	6
Pennsylvania	Northeast	1992-2012	6
Vermont	Northeast	1992-2012	6
West Virginia	South	1932-1952	6
New Hampshire	Northeast	1832-1852	6
Arizona	West	1932-1948	5
Idaho	West	1932-1948	5
Montana	West	1932-1948	5
Nevada	West	1932-1948	5
New Mexico	West	1932-1948	5
Oklahoma	South	1932-1948	5
Utah	West	1932-1948	5
Iowa	Midwest	1988-2000	4
Indiana	Midwest	1844-1856	4
Ohio	Midwest	1932-1940	3
Wyoming	West	1932-1940	3
Colorado	West	1908-1916	3
Nebraska	Midwest	1908-1916	3
South Dakota	Midwest	1932-1936	2
Kansas	Midwest	1912-1916; 1932-1936	2
North Dakota	Midwest	1912-1916; 1932-1936	2
Alaska	West	1964	1

Regional designations as per the U.S. Census. Table compiled by Smart Politics.

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