Record Book Near Misses in the 2012 Presidential Election

The Romney-Obama contest ranked among the Top 5 most competitive races ever in three states (AK, FL, NC) and the Top 5 least competitive in six (HI, MD, OK, UT, WV, WY)

Although the 2012 presidential election delivered very few surprises in terms of the state-by-state winners, there were perhaps some unexpected results in terms of the margins of victory across the various states.

For example, throughout the election cycle few probably predicted the Romney-Obama contest in Georgia would end up more competitive than the results in several states that had been frequently discussed as battlegrounds, such as Arizona, Michigan, Missouri, and New Mexico.

Or that the race for South Carolina’s and Mississippi’s electoral votes would ultimately be more closely fought than Oregon’s.

And while no statewide records were set, several states did find their 2012 victory margin rank among the closest – or the biggest blowout – in state history.

On the competitive side, the 2012 election delivered a Top 5 most competitive finish in the history of three states since the birth of the modern two-party system in 1828: Florida, Alaska, and North Carolina.

In Florida, Obama’s 0.9-point victory was the second closest out of 40 contests over the last 184 years, behind George W. Bush’s razor-thin 0.01-point win over Al Gore in 2000.

It was just the seventh time a presidential race had been decided by less than five points in the Sunshine State.

Although Romney’s 14.0-point win in Alaska was far from a nail-biter, it was much closer than expected and marked the fourth closest such contest in the state (out of 14 cycles).

The only races that were more competitive in Alaska presidential electoral history were Richard Nixon’s 1.9-point win over John Kennedy in 1960, Nixon’s 2.6-point win over Hubert Humphrey in 1968, and George H.W. Bush’s 9.2-point victory over Bill Clinton in 1992.

Alaska is also one of just three states won by John McCain in 2008 in which Obama decreased his margin of loss in 2012 (along with Louisiana and Mississippi). And, at +7.6 points, it was also Obama’s biggest improvement.

In North Carolina, Romney’s 2.0-point victory was the fifth most competitive race out of 46 election cycles since 1828.

Obama’s 0.3-point win over McCain in 2008 was the narrowest in state history, followed by George H.W. Bush’s 0.8-point win over Clinton in 1992, Franklin Pierce’s 0.9-point defeat of Winfield Scott in 1852, and Adlai Stevenson’s 1.3-point win over Dwight Eisenhower in 1956.

The Romney-Obama contest in six other states was among the Top 10 most competitive in state history: Arizona (#7), Georgia (#7), Colorado (#8), South Carolina (#9), Mississippi (#9), and Virginia (#9).

And as for the blowouts?

The Romney-Obama matchup delivered a Top 5 all-time landslide for six states across the country:

· Romney’s 40.8-point win in Wyoming is the 2nd largest presidential victory margin in state history, behind Ronald Reagan’s 42.3-point win over Walter Mondale in 1984.

· Obama’s 42.7-point win in Hawaii ranks #3, behind LBJ’s 57.5-point win over Barry Goldwater in 1964 and Obama’s 45.3-point win over John McCain in 2008.

· Obama’s 26.1-point victory in Maryland ranks #3 behind Horatio Seymour’s 34.4-point win over Ulysses Grant in 1868 and LBJ’s 30.9-point win over Goldwater in 1964.

· Romney’s 48.0-point win in Utah ranks #4 behind William Jennings Bryan’s 65.4-point win over William McKinley in 1896, Reagan’s 52.2-point win over Jimmy Carter in 1980, and Reagan’s 49.8-point victory over Mondale in 1984.

· Romney’s 26.8-point victory in West Virginia ranks #4 behind Abraham Lincoln’s 36.4-point win over George McClellan in 1864, LBJ’s 35.9-point win over Goldwater in 1964, and Richard Nixon’s 27.2-point victory over George McGovern in 1972.

· Romney’s 33.5-point win in Oklahoma ranks #5 in the state behind Nixon’s 49.7-point win in 1972, FDR’s 46.6-point victory in 1932, Reagan’s 37.9-point win in 1984, and FDR’s 34.1-point victory over Alf Landon in 1936.

New York (#6), California (#7), Idaho (#8), Delaware (#8), Kentucky (#8), and Tennessee (#10) also recorded landslide victories among the Top 10 largest in their respective state histories.

The District of Columbia, which has voted in 13 cycles since 1964, recorded its second most lopsided victory at 83.6 points for Obama behind his 85.9-point victory there in 2008’s.

2012 Presidential Election Cycle Margin of Victory Rank by State, 1828-present

Table compiled by Smart Politics.

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