McConnell Bucking History: Kentucky Has Nation’s Highest Senator Turnover Rate

The Minority Leader has the longest Senate tenure in Kentucky history, even though the state’s two Senate seats have turned over 77 times, or an average of once per 2.8 years – the highest rate in the country

Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes’ announcement today that she was entering the state’s 2014 U.S. Senate race brings a high profile Democrat into the fold to challenge five-term GOP Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

McConnell remains an early favorite to keep his seat, but is still one of the Democratic Party’s top targets during a cycle in which Republicans are expected to pick up a handful of seats and potentially take back control of the chamber.

And although there has been relative stability in McConnell’s Class II Senate seat over the decades (just three Senators have held it since 1956), that fact belies some close calls the senior senator from the Bluegrass State has faced during his tenure, and the remarkably high turnover of U.S. Senators Kentuckians have endured the last two hundred years.

How high?

A Smart Politics review of turnover in the U.S. Senate finds that Kentucky has the highest rate in the nation with an average of one new Senator every 2 years and 10 months since statehood.

With McConnell approaching 28 years and six months in the chamber, one could say he has had an unusually long political half-life in the state.

Turnover in the U.S. Senate, of course, can happen for a number of reasons other than simply getting beat at the ballot box.

Senators have exited the chamber due to death, retirement, resigning out of scandal or to take a different position, expulsion, or getting removed from office after losing a contested election.

Smart Politics tallied each time a new Senator took office – for any reason – from each state after its first two Senators were sworn into office at statehood.

That number was divided into the number of years each state has had representation in the nation’s upper legislative chamber (usually since statehood, but sometimes less, such as confederate states who lost representation during and after the Civil War).

Kentucky has had more turnover in its Senate seats – and the highest rate – than any other state in the country – turning over 77 times across 221 years since statehood, or a turnover rate of one Senator every 2 years and 10 months (2.87 years).

That rate has obviously dropped during the last few decades, with McConnell on track for 30 consecutive years of service following Dee Huddleston (12 years) and John Cooper (16+) who each served multi-term tenures before him.

But McConnell’s seat has nearly turned over twice during his tenure.

After winning his first term by 0.4 points over Huddleston in 1984, McConnell narrowly escaped with a 4.4-point victory over Harvey Sloane in 1990 to win a second term and a 5.9-point win in 2008 against Bruce Lunsford to win a fifth.

Kentucky had a particularly tumultuous period during a decade-plus stretch from 1945 to 1956 when its two Senate seats turned over 10 times collectively on the heels of two resignations (Democrats Happy Chandler in 1945 and Alben Barkley in 1949) and two deaths (Democrats Virgil Chapman in 1951 and Alben Barkley in 1956).

The state with the second highest turnover rate in U.S. Senate history is New Jersey, averaging a new Senator every 3.11 years.

After October’s special election, the Garden State will have had three Senators in 2013 representing its Class II seat (inching its turnover rate closer to Kentucky at 3.07).

Rounding out the Top 10 states are Tennessee at #3 (one new Senator every 3.26 years), New Hampshire at #4 (3.39), Georgia at #5 (3.40), Ohio at #6 (3.50), New York at #7 (3.56), Virginia at #8 (3.71), South Carolina at #9 (3.72), and Maryland at #10 (3.73).

Of the Top 10 states with the highest turnover, only one – Georgia – is guaranteed to have a new Senator after the 2014 cycle, with Republican Saxby Chambliss retiring at the end of his term.

The states with the lowest turnover rates are mostly out west with Hawaii and Alaska averaging a new Senator every 10.80 years, followed by Arizona (10.10), Utah (8.36), Oklahoma (6.63), New Mexico (6.31), Nevada (6.21), Montana (6.20), Wyoming (5.86), and Wisconsin (5.69).

However, not every western state has had a low turnover rate throughout the years with California coming in at #14 (3.88) and Oregon at #17 (3.95).

Likewise, not every eastern state has had a high turnover rate with Vermont at #37 (5.29), Maine at #33 (4.83), and Rhode Island at #30 (4.65).

The average turnover rate across the 50 states is one new Senator every 4.25 years.

U.S. Senator Turnover Rate by State

Rank	State	Years*	Turnover	Rate
1	Kentucky	221	77	2.87
2	New Jersey	224	72	3.11
3	Tennessee	212	65	3.26
4	New Hampshire	224	66	3.39
5	Georgia	214	63	3.40
6	Ohio	210	60	3.50
7	New York	224	63	3.56
8	Virginia	219	59	3.71
9	South Carolina	216	58	3.72
10	Maryland	224	60	3.73
11	Minnesota	155	41	3.78
12	Louisiana	194	51	3.80
13	Illinois	195	51	3.82
14	California	163	42	3.88
15	Mississippi	187	48	3.90
16	Colorado	137	35	3.91
17	North Carolina	217	55	3.95
17	Nebraska	146	37	3.95
17	Oregon	154	39	3.95
20	Massachusetts	224	56	4.00
21	Connecticut	224	55	4.07
21	Pennsylvania	224	55	4.07
21	Delaware	224	55	4.07
24	Indiana	197	46	4.28
25	West Virginia	150	35	4.29
26	Missouri	192	43	4.47
27	Idaho	123	27	4.56
27	Alabama	187	41	4.56
29	Michigan	176	38	4.63
30	Rhode Island	223	48	4.65
31	Kansas	152	32	4.75
32	Iowa	167	35	4.77
33	Maine	193	40	4.83
34	Florida	161	33	4.88
35	Texas	159	32	4.97
36	South Dakota	124	24	5.17
37	Vermont	222	42	5.29
38	Arkansas	170	32	5.31
39	North Dakota	124	22	5.64
39	Washington	124	22	5.64
41	Wisconsin	165	29	5.69
42	Wyoming	123	21	5.86
43	Montana	124	20	6.20
44	Nevada	149	24	6.21
45	New Mexico	101	16	6.31
46	Oklahoma	106	16	6.63
47	Utah	117	14	8.36
48	Arizona	101	10	10.10
49	Alaska	54	5	10.80
49	Hawaii	54	5	10.80

* Number of years is equal to the number of years each state has had representation in the U.S. Senate since statehood. Table compiled by Smart Politics.

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