Steve Stockman’s 12 Percent Solution
Only 4 of 31 Texas U.S. Senate candidacies by sitting or ex-U.S. Representatives have been successful in the direct election era
Republican U.S. Representative Steve Stockman’s 11th hour decision to launch a 2014 primary challenge against Texas U.S. Senator John Cornyn made more than a few jaws drop in Washington and the Lone Star State this week.
The candidacy of Stockman, one of the most outspoken Republican members of the 113th Congress, has been largely characterized as doomed from the start given his late entrance into the race (the primary is on March 4th), his relative lack of funds vis-à-vis Cornyn (the Senate’s Minority Whip), as well as the trail of eyebrow-raising statements he has delivered while in office this year.
Stockman is in his second, nonconsecutive term (previously serving from 1995 to 1997) and is seeking to become just the fifth Texan to win election to the chamber as a sitting or former member of the U.S. House of Representatives.
Nearly seven times as many have failed.
A Smart Politics analysis finds that just four of 31 sitting or ex-Texas U.S. Representatives running for the U.S. Senate have been victorious during the direct election era, or 12.9 percent.
Over the last century since the passage of the 17th Amendment, only the following Texas U.S. Representatives were elected to the nation’s upper legislative chamber:
· Six-term Democrat Tom Connally in 1928
· Six-term Democrat Lyndon Johnson in 1948
· Former four-term Democrat Lloyd Bentsen in 1970
· Three-term Democrat-turned-Republican Phil Gramm in 1984
Two of these candidates – Connally and Bentsen – did what Stockman is attempting to do: knock out an incumbent during the primary election (Democrats Earle Mayfield in 1928 and Ralph Yarborough in 1970).
(Note: Former two-term Democrat Robert Krueger was appointed to Bentsen’s seat in 1993 after two previous failed campaigns).
During this 100-year span, sitting or former Texas U.S. Representatives have run for the U.S. Senate and failed on 27 other occasions including at least one attempt each decade:
· One in the 1910s: Democrat Robert Henry (1916)
· Four in the 1920s: Democrats Robert Henry (1922, 1928), Atkins McLemore (1828), and Thomas Blanton (1928)
· Two in the 1930s: Democrats Robert Henry (1930) and Joseph Bailey, Jr. (1934)
· Two in the 1940s: Democrats Lyndon Johnson (1941) and Martin Dies, Jr. (1941)
· Two in the 1950s: Democrats Lindley Beckworth (1952) and Martin Dies, Jr. (1957)
· One in the 1960s: Democrat James Wright (1961)
· Three in the 1970s: Republicans George H.W. Bush (1970) and Alan Steelman (1976) and Democrat Robert Krueger (1978)
· Five in the 1980s: Republicans James Collins (1982), Ron Paul (1984), and Beau Boulter (1988) and Democrats Kent Hance and Robert Krueger (1984)
· Six in the 1990s: Republican Joe Barton (1993) and Democrats Jack Fields (1993), Jim Mattox (1994), Mike Andrews (1994), John Bryant (1996), and Jim Chapman (1996)
· One in the 2000s: Democrat Ken Bentsen (2002)
Prior to the passage of the 17th Amendment, four ex- or sitting U.S. Representatives were elected to the Senate from Texas: Democrats John Reagan in 1886, Roger Mills in 1892, Joseph Bailey in 1900, and Morris Shepherd in 1913 (Shepherd was later reelected by popular vote in 1918, 1924, 1930, and 1936).
Representative Stockman is just one of seven Republican challengers taking on Cornyn this cycle, although he is the only officeholder.
The rest of the March 2014 GOP primary field includes Curt Cleaver, Ken Cope, Chris Mapp, Reid Reasor, Dwayne Stovall, and Linda Vega.
Texas U.S. Senate Candidacies by Sitting or Former U.S. Representatives, 1914-Present
|
Year
|
US Representative
|
Party
|
Terms*
|
Outcome
|
|
1916
|
Robert Henry
|
Democrat
|
10
|
Lost nomination
|
|
1922
|
Robert Henry
|
Democrat
|
10
|
Lost nomination
|
|
1928
|
Atkins McLemore
|
Democrat
|
2
|
Lost nomination
|
|
1928
|
Robert Henry
|
Democrat
|
10
|
Lost nomination
|
|
1928
|
Thomas Blanton
|
Democrat
|
6
|
Lost nomination
|
|
1928
|
Tom Connally
|
Democrat
|
6
|
Won
|
|
1930
|
Robert Henry
|
Democrat
|
10
|
Lost nomination
|
|
1934
|
Joseph Bailey, Jr.
|
Democrat
|
1
|
Lost nomination
|
|
1941
|
Lyndon Johnson
|
Democrat
|
3
|
Lost special
|
|
1941
|
Martin Dies, Jr.
|
Democrat
|
6
|
Lost special
|
|
1948
|
Lyndon Johnson
|
Democrat
|
6
|
Won
|
|
1952
|
Lindley Beckworth
|
Democrat
|
7
|
Lost nomination
|
|
1957
|
Martin Dies, Jr.
|
Democrat
|
10
|
Lost special
|
|
1961
|
James Wright
|
Democrat
|
4
|
Lost special
|
|
1970
|
George H.W. Bush
|
Republican
|
2
|
Lost general
|
|
1970
|
Lloyd Bentsen
|
Democrat
|
4
|
Won
|
|
1976
|
Alan Steelman
|
Republican
|
2
|
Lost general
|
|
1978
|
Robert Krueger
|
Democrat
|
2
|
Lost general
|
|
1982
|
James Collins
|
Republican
|
8
|
Lost general
|
|
1984
|
Kent Hance
|
Democrat
|
3
|
Lost nomination
|
|
1984
|
Phil Gramm
|
Republican
|
3
|
Won
|
|
1984
|
Robert Krueger
|
Democrat
|
2
|
Lost nomination
|
|
1984
|
Ron Paul
|
Republican
|
4
|
Lost nomination
|
|
1988
|
Beau Boulter
|
Republican
|
2
|
Lost general
|
|
1993
|
Jack Fields
|
Democrat
|
7
|
Lost special
|
|
1993
|
Joe Barton
|
Republican
|
5
|
Lost special
|
|
1994
|
Jim Mattox
|
Democrat
|
3
|
Lost nomination
|
|
1994
|
Mike Andrews
|
Democrat
|
6
|
Lost nomination
|
|
1996
|
Jim Chapman
|
Democrat
|
6
|
Lost nomination
|
|
1996
|
John Bryant
|
Democrat
|
7
|
Lost nomination
|
|
2002
|
Kenneth Bentsen
|
Democrat
|
4
|
Lost nomination
|
* Denotes number of terms served in the U.S. House at the time of the U.S. Senate candidacy. Table compiled by Smart Politics.
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