Ernst Surges After History-Making Primary Win
Ernst is in a dead heat with Bruce Braley on the heels of setting the mark for the largest victory by a non-incumbent in a contested Iowa Republican U.S. Senate primary
The one advantage of running unchallenged in the primary is that the nomination is in the bag.
The downside, however, is that there is little momentum to be found coming out of primary night.
Iowa Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Bruce Braley learned that last week as he watched Republican Joni Ernst turn in an extremely strong performance in her party’s primary.
While Ernst was the universal favorite to place first in the GOP primary, there was not universal agreement that she would reach the 35 percent threshold necessary to avoid sending the nomination to the state convention.
Ernst easily accomplished that feat (with 21+ percentage points to spare), and in doing so turned in one of the most impressive performances in a Republican U.S. Senate primary in Iowa history.
And now Ernst has seen the fruits of her head-turning performance with an immediate bounce in the polls – leading for the first time in head-to-head matchups against Congressman Braley in surveys conducted after her primary win.
Ernst led Braley by a 48 to 42 percent margin in a Loras College poll among likely voters and by a statistically insignificant one-point margin in a new Rasmussen likely voter survey.
Whether or not Ernst can sustain this bounce in the coming weeks remains to be seen, but it seems her immediate boost in the polls was borne not simply from winning the GOP primary, but doing so emphatically.
Smart Politics examined the data from Iowa U.S. Senate Republican primaries since the first contest in 1914 and found that Ernst’s 38.1-point victory was the fifth largest among the 25 contested primaries in state history – and the best by a non-incumbent.
Overall, Iowa Republicans have held 35 U.S. Senate primaries since 1914, although nominees won without opposition 10 times: William Kenyon in 1918, Bourke Hickenlooper in 1944, Thomas Martin in 1954, Roger Jepsen in 1984, Thomas Tauke in 1990, and Chuck Grassley in 1986, 1992, 1998, 2004, and 2010.
Of the remaining 25 contests in which the nominee faced at least one opponent, only four saw a bigger blow-out than Ernst’s win Tuesday – all won by sitting U.S. Senators:
· In 1962, three-term incumbent Bourke Hickenlooper defeated Herbert Hoover by 70.8 points in a head-to-head match
· In 1972, two-term incumbent Jack Miller beat Ralph Scott by 68.8 points in a head-to-head race
· In 1966, one-term incumbent Jack Miller beat Herbert Hoover by 67.8 points in a two-candidate field
· In 1950, one-term incumbent Bourke Hickenlooper defeated Earl Wisdom by 60.5 points in a three-candidate race
Ernst’s 38.1-point victory over Sam Clovis ranks fifth, but is the largest for any contested Republican primary not won by a sitting U.S. Senator of the 15 such contests in the party’s history.
Prior to Ernst’s win, Jim Lightfoot held the mark with his 36.7-point win over Maggie Tinsman in a three-candidate race in 1996.
Margin of Victory in Contested Iowa Republican U.S. Senate Primary Races, 1914-2014
|
Year
|
1st Place
|
%
|
2nd Place
|
%
|
# Cand
|
MoV
|
|
1962
|
Bourke Hickenlooper*
|
85.4
|
Herbert Hoover
|
14.6
|
2
|
70.8
|
|
1972
|
Jack Miller*
|
84.4
|
Ralph Scott
|
15.6
|
2
|
68.8
|
|
1966
|
Jack Miller*
|
83.9
|
Herbert Hoover
|
16.1
|
2
|
67.8
|
|
1950
|
Bourke Hickenlooper*
|
75.3
|
Earl Wisdom
|
14.8
|
3
|
60.5
|
|
2014
|
Joni Ernst
|
56.1
|
Sam Clovis
|
18.0
|
5
|
38.1
|
|
1948
|
George Wilson*
|
68.4
|
John Calhoun
|
31.6
|
2
|
36.8
|
|
1996
|
Jim Lightfoot
|
61.5
|
Maggie Tinsman
|
24.8
|
3
|
36.7
|
|
1956
|
Bourke Hickenlooper*
|
67.7
|
Dayton Countryman
|
32.3
|
2
|
35.4
|
|
1974
|
David Stanley
|
66.9
|
George Milligan
|
34.1
|
2
|
32.8
|
|
1968
|
David Stanley
|
58.7
|
James Bromwell
|
26.7
|
4
|
32.0
|
|
1980
|
Chuck Grassley
|
65.6
|
Tom Stoner
|
34.5
|
2
|
31.1
|
|
1914
|
Albert Cummins*
|
64.6
|
Arthur Savage
|
35.4
|
2
|
29.2
|
|
1922 (s)
|
Smith Brookhart
|
41.1
|
Clifford Thorne
|
16.3
|
6
|
24.8
|
|
1930
|
Lester Dickinson
|
54.0
|
John Hammill
|
30.7
|
4
|
23.3
|
|
1978
|
Roger Jepsen
|
57.3
|
Maurie Van Nostrand
|
35.6
|
3
|
21.7
|
|
1942
|
George Wilson
|
51.7
|
Mark Thornburg
|
32.7
|
4
|
19.0
|
|
1936
|
Lester Dickinson*
|
40.5
|
Smith Brookhart
|
22.3
|
6
|
18.2
|
|
2002
|
Greg Ganske
|
59.0
|
Bill Sailer
|
41.0
|
2
|
18.0
|
|
1926
|
Smith Brookhart
|
49.5
|
Albert Cummins*
|
32.5
|
5
|
17.0
|
|
1938
|
Lester Dickinson
|
57.0
|
Lloyd Thurston
|
43.0
|
2
|
14.0
|
|
1932
|
Henry Field
|
47.4
|
Smith Brookhart*
|
35.1
|
4
|
12.3
|
|
1924
|
Smith Brookhart*
|
55.0
|
Burton Sweet
|
45.0
|
2
|
10.0
|
|
1920
|
Albert Cummins*
|
54.5
|
Smith Brookhart
|
45.5
|
2
|
9.0
|
|
1960
|
Jack Miller
|
30.8
|
Dayton Countryman
|
29.0
|
6
|
1.8
|
|
2008
|
Christopher Reed
|
35.3
|
George Eichorn
|
34.5
|
3
|
0.8
|
* Denotes incumbent. Compiled by Smart Politics with data culled from the Iowa Official Register.
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