Patrick Murphy and a Brief History of US Senate Bids by Florida US Reps

Sitting or ex- Florida U.S. Representatives have won U.S. Senate seats in just two of 17 attempts since 1970

Two-term Florida Congressman Patrick Murphy is expected to announce his candidacy for Florida’s 2016 U.S. Senate race later this month – giving Democrats a centrist candidate in what they hope is one of many pick-up opportunities as they seek to retake the chamber for the 115th Congress.

If Murphy enters the race it will be despite the uncertainty of incumbent Marco Rubio’s reelection plans.

Rubio is considered more likely than not to enter the Republican presidential sweepstakes this cycle. Such a bid, however, would not necessarily preclude Rubio from ultimately seeking reelection to his seat.

All this uncertainty has no doubt kept some Democrats at bay in what would otherwise likely be – if Rubio did not seek to keep his seat – a very competitive open seat race.

To date, only one Democrat is officially in the race – political novice, attorney, and former U.S. Navy Judge Advocate Pam Keith.

To be sure, Murphy boasts moderate credentials (serving a Romney-carried district) which could benefit him in a general election: National Journal ranked the Florida U.S. Representative as having just the 190th most liberal voting record in 2013 in a chamber with only 200 Democrats.

Despite this resume and established success in running for federal office, Murphy nonetheless would have to travel down a political road that few Florida U.S. Representatives have successfully navigated over the decades.

A Smart Politics analysis finds that sitting or ex-Florida U.S. Representatives have won only two of 17 bids for the U.S. Senate since 1970 (11 percent) and just four of 21 since direct elections were introduced a century ago (19 percent).

One does not have to look back very far in the Sunshine State’s electoral history to find several failed U.S. Senate candidacies from members of the nation’s lower legislative chamber.

In fact, six Florida U.S. Representatives have tried and failed over the last four races for the office:

● 2004: Former 10-term Republican Bill McCollum lost his party’s nomination won by Mel Martinez
● 2004: Six-term Democrat Peter Deutsch lost his party’s nomination to Betty Castor
● 2006: Two-term Republican Katherine Harris lost to incumbent Bill Nelson in the general election by 22.2 points
● 2010: Four-term Democrat Kendrick Meek finished a distant third, 28.7 points behind Marco Rubio and also trailing independent Charlie Crist
● 2012: Former seven-term Republican Dave Weldon lost the GOP nomination to Connie Mack IV
● 2012: Four-term Republican Connie Mack IV lost to incumbent Bill Nelson in the general election by 13.0 points

The long list of failed U.S. Senate candidacies by sitting or former U.S. Representatives over the last four decades continues:

● 1970: Eight-term Republican Representative Bill Cramer lost to Democrat Lawton Chiles by 7.7 points
● 1974: One-term Representative Bill Gunter lost the Democratic nomination in a race eventually won by Democrat Richard Stone
● 1980: Bill Gunter ran again, losing this time in the general election by 3.3 points to Republican Paula Hawkins
● 1980: Former five-term GOP Representative Louis Frey lost his party’s Senate nomination to Paula Hawkins
● 1988: Three-term Democratic Representative Buddy MacKay lost his Senate race against Connie Mack III by 0.9 points
● 1988: Bill Gunter’s third attempt at a U.S. Senate run found him narrowly losing the Democratic primary runoff to Buddy MacKay
● 1988: Five-term Democratic U.S. House member Dan Mica also lost his party’s nomination to Buddy MacKay
● 1992: Former two-term Democrat-turned-Republican Representative Bill Grant won just 34.6 percent of the vote against Democrat Bob Graham in the second of Graham’s three U.S. Senate electoral victories
● 2000: Ten-term GOP Representative Bill McCollum made the first of his two failed U.S. Senate bids, losing by 4.9 points to Bill Nelson

There have been two success stories during this 45-year span, although interestingly both general elections featured major party nominees who had both served in the chamber.

In 1988, three-term Republican U.S. Representative Connie Mack III defeated fellow delegation member Buddy MacKay to win Democrat Lawton Chiles’ open seat.

In 2000, former six-term Democratic Congressman and sitting Florida Treasurer and Insurance Commissioner Bill Nelson defeated Republican U.S. House member Bill McCollum to win Mack’s open seat.

One explanation for the large number of U.S. Senate candidacies by sitting and former members of the U.S. House over the last 40+ years is that the number of Floridians serving in the chamber has increased substantially during this period.

The state’s U.S. House delegation has increased from a dozen in the 1960s to 15 in the 1970s, 19 in the 1980s, 23 in the 1990s, 25 in the 2000s, and now 27 in the 2010s.

Of course, that also means each U.S. House member is representing a smaller and smaller fraction of the state’s population – an ever-increasing hurdle to building name recognition and a political base when running for statewide office.

Even so, when the state hosted a much smaller U.S. House delegation from the 1910s through the 1960s, there were only four U.S. Senate candidacies by Florida U.S. Representatives since the state’s first direct election in 1914.

In 1938, three-term Democratic Representative Mark Wilcox lost his party’s nomination in a race won by Democrat Claude Pepper.

In 1946, 10-term Democratic Congressman Lex Green lost his party’s nomination to Spessard Holland.

In 1950, two-term Democratic Representative George Smathers snatched his party’s nomination from two-term incumbent Democratic Senator Claude Pepper en route to a 52.6-point general election blowout victory over GOPer John Booth.

Smathers’ win is the only example in Florida history in which a Representative from the Sunshine State won a U.S. Senate race with a sitting incumbent up for election.

In 1968, in an open-seat race to replace the retiring Smathers, three-term Republican Representative Edward Gurney was victorious by 11.8 points over Democrat LeRoy Collins.

Murphy’s entrance into the race is unlikely to draw a field-clearing reaction on the Democratic side of the ballot, and reports surfaced yesterday that former Governor Charlie Crist is mulling a third run at the chamber (following losses in 1998 and 2010).

And, to be sure, if Rubio does not seek reelection to his seat there will likely be an avalanche of Florida Republicans angling to claim his seat – including at least one of the state’s 17 GOP U.S. Representatives.

Florida U.S. Senate Candidacies by Sitting or Ex- U.S. Representatives

Year	US Representative	Party	Terms	Served	Outcome
1938	Mark Wilcox	Democrat	3	1933-1939	Lost nomination
1946	Lex Green	Democrat	10	1925-1944	Lost nomination
1950	George Smathers	Democrat	2	1947-1951	Won
1968	Edward Gurney	Republican	3	1963-1969	Won
1970	Bill Cramer	Republican	8	1955-1971	Lost general
1974	Bill Gunter	Democrat	1	1973-1975	Lost nomination
1980	Louis Frey	Republican	5	1969-1979	Lost nomination
1980	Bill Gunter	Democrat	1	1973-1975	Lost general
1988	Buddy MacKay	Democrat	3	1983-1989	Lost general
1988	Bill Gunter	Democrat	1	1973-1975	Lost nomination
1988	Dan Mica	Democrat	5	1979-1989	Lost nomination
1988	Connie Mack III	Republican	3	1983-1989	Won
1992	Bill Grant	Republican*	2	1987-1991	Lost general
2000	Bill Nelson	Democrat	6	1979-1991	Won
2000	Bill McCollum	Republican	10	1981-2001	Lost general
2004	Peter Deutsch	Democrat	6	1993-2005	Lost nomination
2004	Bill McCollum	Republican	10	1981-2001	Lost nomination
2006	Katherine Harris	Republican	2	2003-2007	Lost general
2010	Kendrick Meek	Democrat	4	2003-2011	Lost general
2012	Connie Mack IV	Republican	4	2005-2013	Lost general
2012	Dave Weldon	Republican	7	2005-2009	Lost nomination

* Bill Grant was originally elected to the U.S. House as a Democrat. Table denotes candidates who ran at least through their party’s primary. Compiled by Smart Politics.

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