Donald Trump has a 0.23-point lead over Hillary Clinton in Michigan, and, if the numbers hold, the state will have the distinction of being the most closely decided in the nation this cycle. [In second place: Clinton’s 0.37-point lead over Trump in New Hampshire]. This marks the second time the Wolverine State has hosted the country’s most competitive presidential contest. In 1940, Wendell Willkie defeated Franklin Roosevelt in Michigan by just 0.33 points. No other state was decided by less than a single point that November. The only other time Michigan has been decided by less than a point was in 1884 when Republican John Blaine carried the state by 0.82 points over Grover Cleveland. Kentucky holds the record for the largest number of most closely decided presidential races since 1828 with five: 1896 (0.06 points), 1900 (1.71 points), 1920 (0.44 points), 1952 (0.07 points), and 1996 (0.96 points).


  1. Nikoli Orr on November 10, 2016 at 8:19 pm

    1884: Hm, a highly noteworthy result, given that it was one of the bedrock R bastions at the time.
    2016: Depending on the final result, Stein and (to lesser degree) Johnson (a la Henry Wallace in 1948) may have effectively tipped it to “thedonald” (Otherwise, Truman more likely than not would have carried it, along with NY and MD).

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