Less than a decade ago, during the 111th Congress, Democrats held a majority of U.S. House seats in the (now very red) states of Arkansas (three of four seats), Indiana (five of nine), Mississippi (three of four), North Dakota (at-large), South Dakota (at-large), Tennessee (five of nine), and West Virginia (two of three). Cumulatively, Democrats held 20 of these 31 seats. Democrats don’t own delegation majorities in any of those seven states today and control just five of 31 seats: two in Indiana, one in Mississippi, and two in Tennessee. Twelve of these 15 former Democratic-controlled seats were lost after the GOP landslide of 2010.
None of these 7 states are expected to have a D-majority delegation after all the votes are tabulated – which, with luck, should be completed by a week or a ‘scaramucci’ after the Third of November. Indeed, the fact that the Democrats now hold a clear majority of the lower chamber seats with barely a presence in these and other similar venues is a testament to the party’s increasing strength in and reliance upon populous and/or coastal states for their base of support.
Two open seats in IN have at least an outside chance of party switches. The “North Suburbs & Kokomo” district (Susan Lynn Wiant Brooks; R; former US Attorney for SD of IN) is comprised mainly of upper-income, highly-educated voters, many of whom are more and more dismayed with the type of Republican politics practiced by the current WH occupant. The other, the “Gary & Northwest” district of departing Democrat Peter John Visclosky, does have some R-leaning rural regions, though the votes of those areas may not be enough to overcome the dominant Lake County, particularly in what is shaping up to be a banner Democratic year, with IE groups like “43 Alumni for Biden” boosting their prospects.