Will any of the long-shot candidates in the sparse Democratic and Republican fields hang it up after the Granite State votes are counted?

Despite historically few candidates suspending their campaigns after the Iowa caucuses, more than half of the remaining Republican field did so this cycle: Vivek Ramaswamy (after a fourth place finish with 7.7 percent),  former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson (sixth place, 0.2 percent), and most recently Florida Governor Ron DeSantis on Sunday (second place, 21.2 percent).

Eyes now turn to New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary on Tuesday which has had a slightly higher attrition rate.

Overall, 16 of 142 Democratic and Republican candidates have ended their White House bids within a week after New Hampshire primary voters had their say (11.3 percent).

Seven out of 60 Republicans suspended their campaigns (11.7 percent) – two candidates within a day of the primary and five others within seven days:

  • 1972 (March 7): California U.S. Representative Pete McCloskey (March 10)
  • 1988 (February 16): Former Delaware Governor Pete du Pont (February 18)
  • 2000 (February 1): Former U.S. Department of Education official Gary Bauer (February 4)
  • 2012 (January 10): Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman (January 16)
  • 2016 (February 9): Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (February 10), New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (February 10), and former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore (February 12)

Meanwhile, nine out of 82 Democrats exited the race within a week after the Granite State primary (11.0 percent) – four within a day and five others within seven days:

  • 1984 (February 28): California U.S. Senator Alan Cranston (February 29), former Florida Governor Reubin Askew (March 1), and South Carolina U.S. Senator Frtiz Hollings (March 1)
  • 1988 (February 16): Former Arizona Governor Bruce Babbitt (February 18)
  • 2004 (January 27): Connecticut U.S. Senator Joe Lieberman (February 3)
  • 2008 (January 8): New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson (January 10)
  • 2020 (February 11): Entrepreneur Andrew Yang (February 11), Colorado U.S. Senator Michael Bennet (February 11), and former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick (February 12)

With just one non-fringe candidate remaining to challenge Donald Trump in the 2024 fight for the Republican nomination and two low-traction Democratic candidates taking on President Joe Biden this cycle, it is difficult to predict just how poorly one of these long-shots would have to fare in New Hampshire to give up the ghost at this point on the primary calendar.

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