How Well Can Democrats Fare in Kansas’ 2026 US Senate Election?
The party has not come within single digits of winning a U.S. Senate seat in the state in more than 50 years
First term Kansas U.S. Senator Roger Marshall received substantial press for his bumpy weekend (and seemingly hasty exit) at a town hall in the deep red town of Oakley where constituents grilled him about the impact of President Donald Trump’s federal budget cuts, particularly on military veterans.
While some Republicans have since cried foul that such town halls are being strategically riddled with Democratic and/or leftist agitators, in the 2024 election Oakley voted for Trump with 83.6 percent of the vote – defeating Kamala Harris by 69.5 points in the town’s two precincts.
Senator Marshall will undoubtedly start the cycle as a strong favorite to retain his seat in 2026 (presuming he wins renomination). But could a possible midterm backlash against the GOP nationally produce a rarely seen single-digit U.S. Senate contest in the state?
Kansas U.S. Senate seats have been the most reliably Republican of any state in the direct election era with the GOP running up a staggering 33 general and special election victories in a row following Democratic Senator George McGill’s 3.6-point plurality win in 1932.
Nearly five years ago, Smart Politics posited whether Kansas had become a bluer state than neighboring Missouri following the 2020 presidential election. That cycle was the first time in history in which a Democratic nominee for president received a larger percentage of the vote in Kansas (41.4 percent) than in the Show-Me State (41.3 percent).
That happened again in 2024 with Kamala Harris receiving 40.8 percent in Kansas and 40.0 percent in Missouri.
When Marshall won the state’s open U.S. Senate seat in 2020, he did so by just 11.4 points against (Republican-turned-Democratic) State Senator Barbara Bollier.
No Democratic Kansas U.S. Senate nominee has come within single digits of victory since U.S. Representative Bill Roy, who fell 1.7 points short of unseating Senator Bob Dole after Watergate in 1974.
Ever since, Jill Docking fared the best – losing by 10.6 points to U.S. Representative Sam Brownback in the 1996 special election. [Independent candidate Greg Orman also lost by 10.6 points in Pat Roberts’ final victory for the office in 2014].
Perceived overreach and extremism in some quarters of the Kansas GOP in recent cycles has helped Democrats gain some momentum in the state – notably Laura Kelly’s back-to-back plurality gubernatorial wins in 2018 and 2022.
In 2022, Democrats also came within 1.6 points of winning the race for Attorney General, with Wyandotte County District Attorney Chris Mann edged out by former Secretary of State Kris Kobach.
The party had lost the previous three races for the office by an average of 21.6 points.
Democrats lost the 2022 Treasurer race by 12.6 points (with appointed incumbent Lynn Rogers) – the best showing by the party at the ballot box for the office since Sally Thompson won her second term as Treasurer in 1994.
Kansas is currently tied with Utah for the longest Democratic or Republican streak in the nation of failing to come within single digits of victory in a U.S. Senate race. Utah Democrats also last achieved this feat in 1974 when U.S. Representative Wayne Owens lost to Salt Lake City Mayor Jake Garn by 5.9 points.
No prominent Kansas Democrats have yet to enter the 2026 race to challenge Senator Marshall.
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– Barbara Goolsbee BOLLIER
– Governor/lieutenant governor: Two forces are poised to play cross-purposes in the ’26 election, the tilt against the party in presidential power and the eight-year partisan rotation of the posts.
(Should economic conditions spiral way downward in a year and a half, the Democrats may pull off a third consecutive win, despite the strong proclivity towards the aforementioned ‘rotation of the office’. My surmise is that the Democrats will prioritize winning the governor election, followed by the attorney general election, with the US senate election maybe ahead of the treasurer election.)
I think you are correct that Dems will prioritize the GOV race, given their much higher rate of success in elections for state constitutional offices. Also – how deep is the KS DEM bench to cover all of these offices with quality, well-known nominees, esp. when Laura Kelly has ruled out a US SEN bid?
[Kansas is currently tied with Utah for the longest Democratic or Republican streak in the nation of failing to come within single digits of victory in a U.S. Senate race. Utah Democrats also last achieved this feat in 1974 when U.S. Representative Wayne Owens lost to Salt Lake City Mayor Jake Garn by 5.9 points.]
MD’s streak last longer: 1970 was the last time a senate race was even remotely competitive. R’s did win in 1974 and 1980 through, which means that you could argue the MD GOP drought started in 1982.
RE: Maryland – yes, there are longer statewide streaks without a competitive (single-digit MoV) U.S. Senate election (Delaware’s is also longer – 1972). But that note above highlights partisan competitive droughts, which are ended w/victories.
– Had Senator Dole not been pushed out as head of thr National Republican Committee in 1973 he might well have been a one-term senator, to say nothing of ascending to floor leader or eventually becoming a four-time aspirant for vice president or president (1976, 1980, 1988, 1996).
– Aside from winning by “just 11.4%” (actually exceeding the generally predicted single-digit margin against a centrist former Republican) Senator Marshall in 2020 made history by becoming the first Republican nominee for US Senate to lose well-heeled, heavily populated, and suburban County Johnson, the historic heart of the state Republican Party (at least the urban/centrist/eastern wing). Will he carry that venue as an incumbent senator?