A Profile of Minnesota’s 94 DFL and GOP ‘Stronghold’ House Districts

In Monday’s first part in a series of reports looking ahead to the battle for the Minnesota House in 2010, Smart Politics outlined several significant hurdles the Republican Party faces to not simply make a long-shot run at taking back the lower chamber in St. Paul, but to even make a sizable dent in the DFL’s 40-seat advantage.

In that report, an analysis of election data spanning 543 general and special election House contests held since 2002 found the DFL to have deepened their support across 36 times as many districts as the GOP, to have won a lower percentage of their seats in 2008 by competitive margins than the Republicans as well as a larger percentage of their seats by blowout victories, and to hold a double-digit advantage in the number of ‘stronghold districts.’

In today’s second part of the series, Smart Politics delves deeper into these DFL and Republican stronghold districts – which districts are the most reliably DFL and Republican across the state?

The DFL has swept 52 house districts since new districts were drawn in 2002 after the 2000 census. The average margin of victory in these 52 districts is 39.0 points. Not surprisingly, the six districts with the largest average margins of victory in House contests are all located in Minneapolis. In fact, 16 of the top 20 DFL districts are located in the cities of Minneapolis or St. Paul.

District 61A, represented by 15-term DFLer Karen Clark, holds the distinction for producing the most lopsided House contests in the state, with an average 75.3-point margin of victory since 2002. Clark won her seat by 70.6 points in 2002, 75.7 points in 2004, 76.7 points in 2006, and 78.1 points in 2008.

Rounding out the Top 5 most heavily favored DFL districts in the state are 60B (Frank Hornstein, 70.4 points), 59A (Diane Loeffler, 65.6 points), 62A (Jim Davnie, 62.9 points), and 61B (Jeff Hayden, 62.7 points).

Outside of the Twin Cities, the strongest DFL district for House races in the state is District 07B out of Duluth (ranked #7), currently represented by newcomer Roger Reinert. District 07B has averaged a 58.7-point margin of victory for the DFL since 2002.

The only other non-metro districts in the DFL Top 20 are District 05A in the Eveleth region (ranked #9 at 57.7 points, held by Tom Rukavina), District 06A out of Ely (#13, 54.0 points, David Dill), and District 03A in International Falls (#18, 50.3 points, Tom Anzelc).

Overall, of the 52 districts in which the DFL has been undefeated since 2002, only eight have average margins of victory across these four election cycles of less than 20 points, and only two by less than 10 points (Disricts 13B, Willmar and 20A, Benson).

Representative Rukavina, representing the 9th strongest DFL House district in the state, is one of three House DFLers running or exploring a run for the Governor’s mansion. House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher’s District 60A is tied for the 10th most DFL-favored district in the state (57.4 points), and Representative Paul Thissen’s District 63A in Richfield is ranked #27 on the list (with a 37.9-point average margin of victory).

Undefeated DFL Minnesota House Districts by Average Margin of Victory, 2002-2008

Rank	District	Area	State Rep.	MoV
1	61A	Minneapolis	Karen Clark	75.3
2	60B*	Minneapolis	Frank Hornstein	70.4
3	59A*	Minneapolis	Diane Loeffler	65.6
4	62A	Minneapolis	Jim Davnie	62.9
5	61B	Minneapolis	Jeff Hayden	62.7
6	58B	Minneapolis	Bobby Joe Champion	61.2
7	07B**	Duluth	Roger Reinert	58.7
8	65A	St. Paul	Cy Thao	58.0
9	05A	Eveleth	Tom Rukavina	57.7
10	60A	Minneapolis	Margaret A. Kelliher	57.4
10	59B*	Minneapolis	Phyllis Kahn	57.4
10	58A	Minneapolis	Joe Mullery	57.4
13	06A	Ely	David Dill	54.0
14	62B	Minneapolis	Jean Wagenius	52.7
15	64A	St. Paul	Erin Murphy	52.5
16	66B	St. Paul	Alice Hausman	51.6
17	66A	St. Paul	John Lesch	50.6
18	03A*	International Falls	Tom Anzelc	50.3
19	65B	St. Paul	Carlos Mariani	50.1
20	67A	St. Paul	Tim Mahoney	49.5
21	05B	Hibbing	Tony Sertich	48.6
22	09B	Detroit Lakes	Paul Marquart	45.4
23	64B	St. Paul	Michael Paymar	41.0
24	39B	Inver Grove Heights	Joe Atkins	40.4
25	06B	Duluth	Mary Murphy	40.2
26	67B	St. Paul	Sheldon Johnson	39.4
27	63A	Richfield	Paul Thissen	37.9
28	31A	Winona	Gene Pelowski	34.3
29	08A	Cloquet	Bill Hilty	34.1
30	03B**	Grand Rapids	Loren Solberg	32.4
31	07A	Duluth	Thomas Huntley	31.5
32	15B	St. Cloud	Larry Haws	31.1
33	40B	Bloomington	Ann Lenczewski	30.2
34	44B	St. Louis Park	Ryan Winkler	30.0
35	50A	Columbia Heights	Carolyn Laine	27.9
36	46B	Brooklyn Center	Debra Histrom	26.4
37	57A	Cottage Grove	Karla Bigham	24.8
38	55A	Maplewood	Leon Lillie	24.1
39	46A	Brooklyn Park	Mike Nelson	23.9
40	45B	Crystal	Lyndon Carlson	23.6
41	63B	Bloomington	Linda Slocum	23.4
42	02A	Detroit	Kent Eken	23.1
43	23B	Mankato	Kathy Brynaert	21.2
44	55B	Oakdale	Nora Slawik	20.3
45	51B	Mounds View	Tom Tillberry	19.6
46	54A	Roseville	Mindy Greiling	17.9
47	39A	West St. Paul	Rick Hansen	17.6
48	11B	Long Prairie	Mary Ellen Otremba	17.4
49	20B	Montevideo	Lyle Koenen	14.2
50	01B	Crookston	Bernie Lieder	11.8
51	13B	Willmar	Al Juhnke	9.0
52	20A	Benson	Andrew Falk	8.5

* No opposition in 2002. ** No opposition in 2006. Due to a special election in 2005, the DFL has won District 15B five times during this span. Data compiled by Smart Politics.

Although the Republicans have seen their 82-seat caucus erode to 47 seats in six years, the GOP has still swept 42 districts across the state since 2002. While these 42 seats are reliably Republican, they are not quite the strongholds as their DFL counterparts.

The average margin of victory in these 42 districts is only 20.6 points. Twenty-three districts have average margins of victory of less than 20 points, including eight of less than 10 points.

Plymouth’s Steve Smith, a 10-term legislator, represents the house district with the largest Republican average margin of victory since 2002. At 43.3 points per contest, Representative Smith is one of five Republicans against which the DFL has failed to field a candidate since redistricting. While Smith only had the 25th largest GOP victory in 2002, he had the fifth largest in 2004, second largest in 2006, and 10th largest in 2008.

Rounding out the Top 5 most reliably Republican districts are Districts 10B out of Wadena (41.3 points, held by Mark Murdock), District 33B out of Orono (38.0 points, Connie Doepke), District 34A in Waconia (35.1 points, Paul Kohls), and District 24A in Fairmont (31.6 points, Bob Gunther).

Representative Kohls is one of three GOP House members running for governor, and represents the district with the fourth largest margin of victory for Republicans since 2002. Other Republican gubernatorial contenders include former House Minority Leader Marty Seifert, representing the 8th most reliably GOP House district (21A out of Marhsall, 28.6 points) and Representative Tom Emmer, representing the 26th most Republican district (19B in the St. Michael area, 16.4 points).

Emmer’s district is the only one out of 134 across the state in which the GOP has improved its standing in each contest since 2002 (increasing its margin of victory, or decreasing its margin of loss).

Although new Republican Minority Leader Kurt Zellers represents the district with the 10th largest average margin of victory for Republicans in the state, that number is inflated by his predecessor Rich Stanek’s 98.0-point unchallenged run in 2002. Zellers, who Smart Politics profiled in June as one of the most politically vulnerable House Republican caucus leaders in recent history, has won his last three contests by an average of just 7.1 points.

Undefeated Republican Minnesota House Districts by Average Margin of Victory, 2002-2008

Rank	District	Area	State Rep.	MoV
1	33A**	Plymouth	Steve Smith	43.3
2	10B*	Wadena	Mark Murdock	41.3
3	33B*	Orono	Connie Doepke	38.0
4	34A	Waconia	Paul Kohls	35.1
5	24A	Fairmont	Bob Gunther	31.6
6	32A	Maple Grove	Joyce Peppin	31.1
7	11A	Alexandria	Torrey Westrom	28.7
8	21A	Marshall	Marty Seifert	28.6
9	36A	Lakeville	Mary Liz Holberg	28.1
10	32B*	Maple Grove	Kurt Zellers	27.9
11	13A	Sauk Center	Paul Anderson	27.8
12	35B	Savage	Mark Buesgens	27.0
13	42B	Eden Prairie	Jenifer Loon	26.6
14	49A	Andover	Peggy Scott	23.5
15	48B	Ramsey	Jim Abeler	23.0
16	18A	Hutchinson	Ron Shimanski	21.7
17	34B	Chanhassen	Joe Hoppe	21.6
18	52A	Forest Lake	Bob Dettmer	21.3
19	16B	Big Lake	Mary Kiffmeyer	20.8
20	28B	Goodview	Steve Drazkowski	19.8
21	09A	Moorhead	Morrie Lanning	18.4
22	41A	Edina	Keith Downey	17.0
23	29A	Kasson	Randy Demmer	16.8
24	36B	Farmington	Pat Garofalo	16.7
24	48A	Elk River	Tom Hackbarth	16.7
26	19B	St. Michael	Tom Emmer	16.4
27	10A	Fergus Falls	Bud Nornes	15.7
27	35A	Shakopee	Mike Beard	15.7
29	25A	New Prague	Laura Brod	15.5
30	19A	Buffalo	Bruce Anderson	15.0
31	57B	Hastings	Denny McNamara	14.8
32	15A	St. Cloud	Steve Gottwalt	14.3
33	21B	New Ulm	Paul Torkelson	12.7
34	43A	Plymouth	Sarah Anderson	12.6
35	18B	Litchfield	Dean Urdahl	12.0
36	22A	Luverne	Doug Magnus	11.1
37	14A	Sauk Rapids	Dan Severson	11.0
38	22B	Worthington	Rod Hamilton	10.6
39	04B	Crosslake	Larry Howes	10.6
40	53B	White Bear Lake	Carol McFarlane	10.5
41	24B	Wells	Tony Cornish	8.8
42	17A	Cambridge	Rob Eastlund	5.8

* No opposition in 2002. ** No opposition in 2006. Due to special elections, Republicans won Districts 32B, 18A, and 28B five times since 2002. Data compiled by Smart Politics.

Coming later this week: a profile of the 40 swing districts won by both the DFL and GOP during the last four election cyles.

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