A Profile of Minnesota’s 94 DFL and GOP ‘Stronghold’ House Districts
In Monday’s first part in a series of reports looking ahead to the battle for the Minnesota House in 2010, Smart Politics outlined several significant hurdles the Republican Party faces to not simply make a long-shot run at taking back the lower chamber in St. Paul, but to even make a sizable dent in the DFL’s 40-seat advantage.
In that report, an analysis of election data spanning 543 general and special election House contests held since 2002 found the DFL to have deepened their support across 36 times as many districts as the GOP, to have won a lower percentage of their seats in 2008 by competitive margins than the Republicans as well as a larger percentage of their seats by blowout victories, and to hold a double-digit advantage in the number of ‘stronghold districts.’
In today’s second part of the series, Smart Politics delves deeper into these DFL and Republican stronghold districts – which districts are the most reliably DFL and Republican across the state?
The DFL has swept 52 house districts since new districts were drawn in 2002 after the 2000 census. The average margin of victory in these 52 districts is 39.0 points. Not surprisingly, the six districts with the largest average margins of victory in House contests are all located in Minneapolis. In fact, 16 of the top 20 DFL districts are located in the cities of Minneapolis or St. Paul.
District 61A, represented by 15-term DFLer Karen Clark, holds the distinction for producing the most lopsided House contests in the state, with an average 75.3-point margin of victory since 2002. Clark won her seat by 70.6 points in 2002, 75.7 points in 2004, 76.7 points in 2006, and 78.1 points in 2008.
Rounding out the Top 5 most heavily favored DFL districts in the state are 60B (Frank Hornstein, 70.4 points), 59A (Diane Loeffler, 65.6 points), 62A (Jim Davnie, 62.9 points), and 61B (Jeff Hayden, 62.7 points).
Outside of the Twin Cities, the strongest DFL district for House races in the state is District 07B out of Duluth (ranked #7), currently represented by newcomer Roger Reinert. District 07B has averaged a 58.7-point margin of victory for the DFL since 2002.
The only other non-metro districts in the DFL Top 20 are District 05A in the Eveleth region (ranked #9 at 57.7 points, held by Tom Rukavina), District 06A out of Ely (#13, 54.0 points, David Dill), and District 03A in International Falls (#18, 50.3 points, Tom Anzelc).
Overall, of the 52 districts in which the DFL has been undefeated since 2002, only eight have average margins of victory across these four election cycles of less than 20 points, and only two by less than 10 points (Disricts 13B, Willmar and 20A, Benson).
Representative Rukavina, representing the 9th strongest DFL House district in the state, is one of three House DFLers running or exploring a run for the Governor’s mansion. House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher’s District 60A is tied for the 10th most DFL-favored district in the state (57.4 points), and Representative Paul Thissen’s District 63A in Richfield is ranked #27 on the list (with a 37.9-point average margin of victory).
Undefeated DFL Minnesota House Districts by Average Margin of Victory, 2002-2008
|
Rank
|
District
|
Area
|
State Rep.
|
MoV
|
|
1
|
61A
|
Minneapolis
|
Karen Clark
|
75.3
|
|
2
|
60B*
|
Minneapolis
|
Frank Hornstein
|
70.4
|
|
3
|
59A*
|
Minneapolis
|
Diane Loeffler
|
65.6
|
|
4
|
62A
|
Minneapolis
|
Jim Davnie
|
62.9
|
|
5
|
61B
|
Minneapolis
|
Jeff Hayden
|
62.7
|
|
6
|
58B
|
Minneapolis
|
Bobby Joe Champion
|
61.2
|
|
7
|
07B**
|
Duluth
|
Roger Reinert
|
58.7
|
|
8
|
65A
|
St. Paul
|
Cy Thao
|
58.0
|
|
9
|
05A
|
Eveleth
|
Tom Rukavina
|
57.7
|
|
10
|
60A
|
Minneapolis
|
Margaret A. Kelliher
|
57.4
|
|
10
|
59B*
|
Minneapolis
|
Phyllis Kahn
|
57.4
|
|
10
|
58A
|
Minneapolis
|
Joe Mullery
|
57.4
|
|
13
|
06A
|
Ely
|
David Dill
|
54.0
|
|
14
|
62B
|
Minneapolis
|
Jean Wagenius
|
52.7
|
|
15
|
64A
|
St. Paul
|
Erin Murphy
|
52.5
|
|
16
|
66B
|
St. Paul
|
Alice Hausman
|
51.6
|
|
17
|
66A
|
St. Paul
|
John Lesch
|
50.6
|
|
18
|
03A*
|
International Falls
|
Tom Anzelc
|
50.3
|
|
19
|
65B
|
St. Paul
|
Carlos Mariani
|
50.1
|
|
20
|
67A
|
St. Paul
|
Tim Mahoney
|
49.5
|
|
21
|
05B
|
Hibbing
|
Tony Sertich
|
48.6
|
|
22
|
09B
|
Detroit Lakes
|
Paul Marquart
|
45.4
|
|
23
|
64B
|
St. Paul
|
Michael Paymar
|
41.0
|
|
24
|
39B
|
Inver Grove Heights
|
Joe Atkins
|
40.4
|
|
25
|
06B
|
Duluth
|
Mary Murphy
|
40.2
|
|
26
|
67B
|
St. Paul
|
Sheldon Johnson
|
39.4
|
|
27
|
63A
|
Richfield
|
Paul Thissen
|
37.9
|
|
28
|
31A
|
Winona
|
Gene Pelowski
|
34.3
|
|
29
|
08A
|
Cloquet
|
Bill Hilty
|
34.1
|
|
30
|
03B**
|
Grand Rapids
|
Loren Solberg
|
32.4
|
|
31
|
07A
|
Duluth
|
Thomas Huntley
|
31.5
|
|
32
|
15B
|
St. Cloud
|
Larry Haws
|
31.1
|
|
33
|
40B
|
Bloomington
|
Ann Lenczewski
|
30.2
|
|
34
|
44B
|
St. Louis Park
|
Ryan Winkler
|
30.0
|
|
35
|
50A
|
Columbia Heights
|
Carolyn Laine
|
27.9
|
|
36
|
46B
|
Brooklyn Center
|
Debra Histrom
|
26.4
|
|
37
|
57A
|
Cottage Grove
|
Karla Bigham
|
24.8
|
|
38
|
55A
|
Maplewood
|
Leon Lillie
|
24.1
|
|
39
|
46A
|
Brooklyn Park
|
Mike Nelson
|
23.9
|
|
40
|
45B
|
Crystal
|
Lyndon Carlson
|
23.6
|
|
41
|
63B
|
Bloomington
|
Linda Slocum
|
23.4
|
|
42
|
02A
|
Detroit
|
Kent Eken
|
23.1
|
|
43
|
23B
|
Mankato
|
Kathy Brynaert
|
21.2
|
|
44
|
55B
|
Oakdale
|
Nora Slawik
|
20.3
|
|
45
|
51B
|
Mounds View
|
Tom Tillberry
|
19.6
|
|
46
|
54A
|
Roseville
|
Mindy Greiling
|
17.9
|
|
47
|
39A
|
West St. Paul
|
Rick Hansen
|
17.6
|
|
48
|
11B
|
Long Prairie
|
Mary Ellen Otremba
|
17.4
|
|
49
|
20B
|
Montevideo
|
Lyle Koenen
|
14.2
|
|
50
|
01B
|
Crookston
|
Bernie Lieder
|
11.8
|
|
51
|
13B
|
Willmar
|
Al Juhnke
|
9.0
|
|
52
|
20A
|
Benson
|
Andrew Falk
|
8.5
|
* No opposition in 2002. ** No opposition in 2006. Due to a special election in 2005, the DFL has won District 15B five times during this span. Data compiled by Smart Politics.
Although the Republicans have seen their 82-seat caucus erode to 47 seats in six years, the GOP has still swept 42 districts across the state since 2002. While these 42 seats are reliably Republican, they are not quite the strongholds as their DFL counterparts.
The average margin of victory in these 42 districts is only 20.6 points. Twenty-three districts have average margins of victory of less than 20 points, including eight of less than 10 points.
Plymouth’s Steve Smith, a 10-term legislator, represents the house district with the largest Republican average margin of victory since 2002. At 43.3 points per contest, Representative Smith is one of five Republicans against which the DFL has failed to field a candidate since redistricting. While Smith only had the 25th largest GOP victory in 2002, he had the fifth largest in 2004, second largest in 2006, and 10th largest in 2008.
Rounding out the Top 5 most reliably Republican districts are Districts 10B out of Wadena (41.3 points, held by Mark Murdock), District 33B out of Orono (38.0 points, Connie Doepke), District 34A in Waconia (35.1 points, Paul Kohls), and District 24A in Fairmont (31.6 points, Bob Gunther).
Representative Kohls is one of three GOP House members running for governor, and represents the district with the fourth largest margin of victory for Republicans since 2002. Other Republican gubernatorial contenders include former House Minority Leader Marty Seifert, representing the 8th most reliably GOP House district (21A out of Marhsall, 28.6 points) and Representative Tom Emmer, representing the 26th most Republican district (19B in the St. Michael area, 16.4 points).
Emmer’s district is the only one out of 134 across the state in which the GOP has improved its standing in each contest since 2002 (increasing its margin of victory, or decreasing its margin of loss).
Although new Republican Minority Leader Kurt Zellers represents the district with the 10th largest average margin of victory for Republicans in the state, that number is inflated by his predecessor Rich Stanek’s 98.0-point unchallenged run in 2002. Zellers, who Smart Politics profiled in June as one of the most politically vulnerable House Republican caucus leaders in recent history, has won his last three contests by an average of just 7.1 points.
Undefeated Republican Minnesota House Districts by Average Margin of Victory, 2002-2008
|
Rank
|
District
|
Area
|
State Rep.
|
MoV
|
|
1
|
33A**
|
Plymouth
|
Steve Smith
|
43.3
|
|
2
|
10B*
|
Wadena
|
Mark Murdock
|
41.3
|
|
3
|
33B*
|
Orono
|
Connie Doepke
|
38.0
|
|
4
|
34A
|
Waconia
|
Paul Kohls
|
35.1
|
|
5
|
24A
|
Fairmont
|
Bob Gunther
|
31.6
|
|
6
|
32A
|
Maple Grove
|
Joyce Peppin
|
31.1
|
|
7
|
11A
|
Alexandria
|
Torrey Westrom
|
28.7
|
|
8
|
21A
|
Marshall
|
Marty Seifert
|
28.6
|
|
9
|
36A
|
Lakeville
|
Mary Liz Holberg
|
28.1
|
|
10
|
32B*
|
Maple Grove
|
Kurt Zellers
|
27.9
|
|
11
|
13A
|
Sauk Center
|
Paul Anderson
|
27.8
|
|
12
|
35B
|
Savage
|
Mark Buesgens
|
27.0
|
|
13
|
42B
|
Eden Prairie
|
Jenifer Loon
|
26.6
|
|
14
|
49A
|
Andover
|
Peggy Scott
|
23.5
|
|
15
|
48B
|
Ramsey
|
Jim Abeler
|
23.0
|
|
16
|
18A
|
Hutchinson
|
Ron Shimanski
|
21.7
|
|
17
|
34B
|
Chanhassen
|
Joe Hoppe
|
21.6
|
|
18
|
52A
|
Forest Lake
|
Bob Dettmer
|
21.3
|
|
19
|
16B
|
Big Lake
|
Mary Kiffmeyer
|
20.8
|
|
20
|
28B
|
Goodview
|
Steve Drazkowski
|
19.8
|
|
21
|
09A
|
Moorhead
|
Morrie Lanning
|
18.4
|
|
22
|
41A
|
Edina
|
Keith Downey
|
17.0
|
|
23
|
29A
|
Kasson
|
Randy Demmer
|
16.8
|
|
24
|
36B
|
Farmington
|
Pat Garofalo
|
16.7
|
|
24
|
48A
|
Elk River
|
Tom Hackbarth
|
16.7
|
|
26
|
19B
|
St. Michael
|
Tom Emmer
|
16.4
|
|
27
|
10A
|
Fergus Falls
|
Bud Nornes
|
15.7
|
|
27
|
35A
|
Shakopee
|
Mike Beard
|
15.7
|
|
29
|
25A
|
New Prague
|
Laura Brod
|
15.5
|
|
30
|
19A
|
Buffalo
|
Bruce Anderson
|
15.0
|
|
31
|
57B
|
Hastings
|
Denny McNamara
|
14.8
|
|
32
|
15A
|
St. Cloud
|
Steve Gottwalt
|
14.3
|
|
33
|
21B
|
New Ulm
|
Paul Torkelson
|
12.7
|
|
34
|
43A
|
Plymouth
|
Sarah Anderson
|
12.6
|
|
35
|
18B
|
Litchfield
|
Dean Urdahl
|
12.0
|
|
36
|
22A
|
Luverne
|
Doug Magnus
|
11.1
|
|
37
|
14A
|
Sauk Rapids
|
Dan Severson
|
11.0
|
|
38
|
22B
|
Worthington
|
Rod Hamilton
|
10.6
|
|
39
|
04B
|
Crosslake
|
Larry Howes
|
10.6
|
|
40
|
53B
|
White Bear Lake
|
Carol McFarlane
|
10.5
|
|
41
|
24B
|
Wells
|
Tony Cornish
|
8.8
|
|
42
|
17A
|
Cambridge
|
Rob Eastlund
|
5.8
|
* No opposition in 2002. ** No opposition in 2006. Due to special elections, Republicans won Districts 32B, 18A, and 28B five times since 2002. Data compiled by Smart Politics.
Coming later this week: a profile of the 40 swing districts won by both the DFL and GOP during the last four election cyles.
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