Could Pawlenty Win the Presidency Without Minnesota?

(This report is the second installment in Smart Politics’ ‘Pathway to the White House’ Series. The first report analyzed from what state presidents come).

A new Minnesota Poll released this week finds a majority of Gopher State residents opposed to a presidential bid by Governor Tim Pawlenty and a plurality of 43 percent saying there is ‘no chance’ they would cast their vote for him.

The Star Tribune finding that there is barely lukewarm support in Pawlenty’s home state for him to seek the highest office in the land, comes as Pawlenty has been running a distant fifth or sixth in (very) early national GOP horserace polls behind more well-known potential candidates such as Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, and Newt Gingrich.

While Pawlenty’s support would likely grow nationwide once he launched an official candidacy (he launches his Freedom First PAC on Thursday), the new Minnesota Poll raises the question – could Pawlenty win the presidency without carrying his home state of Minnesota?

While it is still 2.5 years out from even the presidential primaries, the question is not a far-fetched one to consider from one perspective – a mid-September Rasmussen poll found half of Minnesotans to believe Pawlenty will win the GOP nomination should he run for President.

As analyzed by Smart Politics last week, no president has come from Minnesota to date, and only one has come from the Upper Midwest region (Herbert Hoover, from Iowa, in 1928).

Still, history has demonstrated that it is (nearly) a necessary though not a sufficient condition that presidential nominees must carry their home state if they wish to win the presidency.

A Smart Politics analysis of the 56 presidential elections since 1789 found that all but two presidents carried their home state en route to victory.

The first president to win the White House without his home state was Democrat James Polk in 1844. Polk lost Tennessee by just 123 votes to Kentucky’s Henry Clay out of nearly 120,000 cast, but still defeated Clay 170-105 in the Electoral College vote.

Then, in 1916, Democratic incumbent Woodrow Wilson lost his home state of New Jersey by 11.7 points to New York GOPer Charles Hughes. Wilson had carried New Jersey by 7.6 points in 1912 over New Yorker Teddy Roosevelt.

That’s the entire list.

As such, it does not appear that Pawlenty could have much success in 2012 if he fails to at least enlist Minnesotans among his supporters for such a bid.

Home State Presidential Vote for U.S. Presidents

Year	President	State	Won	Percent	MoV
2008	Obama	Illinois	Yes	61.9	25.1
2004	Bush	Texas	Yes	61.1	22.9
2000	Bush	Texas	Yes	59.3	21.3
1996	Clinton	Arkansas	Yes	53.7	16.9
1992	Clinton	Arkansas	Yes	53.2	17.7
1988	Bush	Texas	Yes	56.0	12.6
1984	Reagan	California	Yes	57.5	16.2
1980	Reagan	California	Yes	52.7	16.8
1976	Carter	Georgia	Yes	66.7	33.8
1972	Nixon	California	Yes	55.0	13.5
1968	Nixon	California	Yes	47.8	3.1
1964	L. Johnson	Texas	Yes	63.3	26.8
1960	Kennedy	Massachusetts	Yes	60.2	20.7
1956	Eisenhower	Pennsylvania	Yes	56.5	13.2
1952	Eisenhower	Pennsylvania	Yes	52.7	5.9
1948	Truman	Missouri	Yes	58.1	16.6
1944	F. Roosevelt	New York	Yes	52.3	5.0
1940	F. Roosevelt	New York	Yes	51.6	3.6
1936	F. Roosevelt	New York	Yes	58.9	19.9
1932	F. Roosevelt	New York	Yes	54.1	12.7
1928	Hoover	Iowa	Yes	61.8	24.2
1924	Coolidge	Massachusetts	Yes	62.3	37.4
1920	Harding	Ohio	Yes	58.5	19.9
1916	Wilson	New Jersey	No	42.7	-11.7
1912	Wilson	New Jersey	Yes	41.2	7.6
1908	Taft	Ohio	Yes	51.0	6.2
1904	T. Roosevelt	New York	Yes	53.1	10.9
1900	McKinley	Ohio	Yes	52.3	6.6
1896	McKinley	Ohio	Yes	51.9	4.8
1892	Cleveland	New York	Yes	49.0	3.4
1888	B. Harrison	Indiana	Yes	49.1	0.4
1884	Cleveland	New York	Yes	48.3	0.1
1880	Garfield	Ohio	Yes	51.7	4.7
1876	Hayes	Ohio	Yes	50.2	1.1
1872	Grant	Ohio	Yes	53.2	7.1
1868	Grant	Ohio	Yes	54.0	8.0
1864	Lincoln	Illinois	Yes	54.4	8.8
1860	Lincoln	Illinois	Yes	50.7	3.5
1856	Buchanan	Pennsylvania	Yes	50.1	18.1
1852	Pierce	New Hampshire	Yes	56.4	25.8
1848	Taylor	Louisiana	Yes	54.6	9.2
1844	Polk	Tennessee	No	50.0	-0.1
1840	W.H. Harrison	Ohio	Yes	54.1	8.5
1836	Van Buren	New York	Yes	54.6	9.3
1832	Jackson	Tennessee	Yes	95.4	90.8
1828	Jackson	Tennessee	Yes	95.2	90.4
1824	J.Q. Adams	Massachusetts	Yes	73.0	57.2
1820	Monroe	Virginia	Yes	—	—
1816	Monroe	Virginia	Yes	—	—
1812	Madison	Virginia	Yes	—	—
1808	Madison	Virginia	Yes	N/A	N/A
1804	Jefferson	Virginia	Yes	N/A	N/A
1800	Jefferson	Virginia	Yes	N/A	N/A
1796	J. Adams	Massachusetts	Yes	N/A	N/A
1792	Washington	Virginia	Yes	N/A	N/A
1789	Washington	Virginia	Yes	N/A	N/A
				56.4	16.5

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