GOP Has Historically Thrived in Minnesota State Senate Special Elections

Despite recent losses, Republican Party has notched a substantially better record in State Senate special elections than the DFL

On Tuesday, in the Owatonna-Waseca-Faribault region, Minnesota’s 26th Senate District will hold an election for the seat vacated by 6-term Republican Dick Day.

The race offers an opportunity for a DFL pick-up, with candidate Jason Engbrecht, or perhaps the biggest Independence Party victory in nearly a decade, with IP nominee Roy Srp.

Republicans, meanwhile, attempt to hold serve with candidate Mike Parry and retain a seat in the legislative body that they have failed to control since partisan ballot elections were instituted in 1974.

Towards that end, the GOP is hoping that if past is prologue, it is the long-view of history that is in play, and not the last few years.

For while the DFL has picked up four Senate seats since 2005 (SD 43 with Terri Bonoff, SD 15 with Tarryl Clark, SD 25 with Kevin Dahle, and SD 16 with Lisa Fobbe), these are the only seats in Senate special elections the Party has gained since 1974.

Republicans, however, have picked up more than three times as many Senate seats, and boast a winning percentage in all special election contests of 61.1 percent – more than 26 points higher than their success in general election Senate contests during the past 36 years (34.8 percent).

Here are the numbers:

· Since 1974, there have been 36 special election senate contests on the ballot in the Gopher State: 23 of these were previously held by the DFL and 13 by the GOP going into the election.

· Republicans have picked off 13 of these 23 DFL seats (56.5 percent) and held onto 9 of their 13 own seats (69.2 percent). Up until 2005, the Republicans had not lost a Senate seat in a special election race.

· The DFL, however, has only picked off 4 of these 13 Republican seats during this 36-year span (30.8 percent), and have held just 10 of their 23 seats (43.5 percent).

Victories in General vs. Special Minnesota State Senate Elections by Party, 1974-2008

Minnesota Legislative Research Library data compiled by Smart Politics.

Overall, the Republican Party is 22 for 36 in special election Senate contests in the Gopher State. This 61.1 percent winning percentage is more than 26 points higher than the 233-437 record it has notched in general election contests since 1974 (34.8 percent).

The DFL, meanwhile, has struggled mightily in special election Senate races. The Party has won just 14 of 36 contests for a winning percentage of 38.9 percent – far below its general election Senate race winning percentage of 64.8 percent (434 victories, 236 losses).

Outcomes in Minnesota State Senate Special Elections, 1974-2008

Party pick-ups in bold. Minnesota Legislative Research Library data compiled by Smart Politics.

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