Meet the New Bellwether States: Ohio and Nevada

Ohio has the longest current streak in the nation with 12 consecutive elections voting for the winning presidential candidate; Nevada has the highest rate over the last 100 years at 96 percent (24 of 25 cycles)

Falling less than 4,000 votes shy in 2008 of extending its streak to 13 consecutive cycles in which the state voted for the winner in presidential elections, Missouri has now officially ceded its unofficial ‘bellwether’ status and a new state has taken its place.

Ohio now owns the best-in-the-nation streak with 12 straight cycles seeing its Electoral College votes go to the eventual president.

Only one other state is within shouting distance – Nevada with eight – although the Silver State owns the best overall record in voting for presidential victors throughout the past 100 years.

Now, after the flip-flop in partisan control of the White House from 2004 to 2008, only seven other states are left with a streak of two or more cycles voting for the winning candidate: Florida with four, Colorado, Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia with three, and Iowa and New Mexico with two.

Ohio’s bellwether status is certainly intact heading into the 2012 cycle, with the Buckeye State following the GOP wave that swept the nation overall in 2010.

Republicans in Ohio picked up the governor’s mansion, five US House seats, two state Senate seats, and 13 seats in the state House last November.

But this isn’t the first time Ohio voters have been in sync with the nation as a whole for a protracted period of time in presidential elections.

The Buckeye State also reeled off another 12 consecutive cycles voting for the winning candidate, beginning with William McKinley’s victory in 1896 all the way through Franklin Roosevelt’s third win in 1940.

Missouri, meanwhile, gained its bellwether status for not simply its 12-cycle stretch from 1960 through 2004 but a 25 out of 26 cycle streak from 1904 through 2004.

And just how common are these multi-generational 40 to 50-year bellwether streaks?

There have been 24 instances across 21 states of 10 or more consecutive votes for the winning ticket in presidential elections since the birth of the nation.

However, all but five of these streaks ended by the mid-1970s – so the current Ohio run is noteworthy.

Aside from Ohio’s present streak, only the 12-cycle run in Missouri (1960-2004), 11-cycle streaks in Kentucky (1964-2004) and Tennessee (1964-2004), and the 12-cycle run in Delaware (1952-1996) have reached double digits since 1976.

Ohio is still a long ways away from holding the all-time bellwether crown, however, as they would still need to vote for the winning presidential candidate in not only 2012, but also 2016, 2020, 2024, and 2028.

Yet ahead of Ohio are:

· Missouri’s 13-cycle streak from 1904-1952 (Dwight Eisenhower lost the state in 1956 by 0.2 percent)

Five states with 14 consecutive cycles:

· Illinois: from 1920 through 1972 (Jimmy Carter lost by 2.0 points in 1976)
· Montana: from 1904 through 1956: (John Kennedy lost by 2.5 points in 1960)
· Idaho: from 1904 through 1956 (Kennedy lost by 7.6 points in 1960)
· Maryland: from 1892-1944 (Harry Truman was defeated by 1.4 points in 1948)
· Pennsylvania: from 1828-1880 (Grover Cleveland lost by 9.5 points in 1884)

And two states with a record 16 consecutive cycles:

· Nevada: from 1912-1972 (Carter lost by 4.4 points in 1976)
· New Mexico: from 1912-1972 (Carter lost by 2.5 points in 1976)

These eight aforementioned streaks were broken by an average of just 3.8 points.

States with 10 or More Consecutive Cycles Voting for Winners in Presidential Elections, 1789-present

State	Cycles	Years
Nevada	16	1912-1972
New Mexico	16	1912-1972
Illinois	14	1920-1972
Idaho	14	1904-1956
Montana	14	1904-1956
Maryland	14	1892-1944
Pennsylvania	14	1828-1880
Missouri	13	1904-1952
Ohio	12	1964-present
Missouri	12	1960-2004
Delaware	12	1952-1996
Minnesota	12	1920-1964
Arizona	12	1912-1956
Ohio	12	1896-1940
Kentucky	11	1964-2004
Tennessee	11	1964-2004
Utah	11	1916-1956
Washington	11	1916-1956
California	11	1916-1956
North Dakota	11	1916-1956
Wyoming	11	1900-1940
Texas	10	1928-1964
Kansas	10	1900-1936
Maryland	10	1789-1824

Data compiled by Smart Politics.

But even though Ohio holds the current longest streak in the nation, neither it nor the State of Missouri can lay claim to the highest overall rate during the past century.

That record belongs to the State of Nevada, which has voted for the winning presidential candidate 96 percent of the time since all Lower 48 states first voted in the Election of 1912.

During the past 100 years, Nevada has voted for the winner in every election except for 1976 when Jimmy Carter lost the Silver State by 4.4 points.

In 1960, Nevada was one of just three western states to vote Kennedy into office (along with Hawaii and New Mexico).

Nevada currently holds the second longest streak in the nation with eight straight cycles voting for the winning candidate.

After Nevada’s 96 percent rate over the past century are New Mexico, Ohio, and Missouri at tied for second with 92 percent, or 23 of 25 elections.

They are followed by Tennessee at #5 (88 percent, 22 elections) and Illinois, California, Delaware, Montana, Kentucky, and Florida tied for #6 (84 percent, 21 elections).

But the truth is a large number of states have nearly achieved the rank of bellwether status over the past century.

In fact, due do a fair number of landslide elections, all 50 states have voted for the winning candidate in a majority of presidential elections since 1912 (Alaska and Hawaii since 1960), and all but nine states have done so in more than two-thirds of such contests.

Overall, 16 states have voted for the winning candidate in 80 percent of elections during the past century, with 26 states at more than 75 percent of the time, and 41 states at more than 67 percent.

The states with the weakest bellwether credentials over the past century are mostly a mixture of deep southern states that largely voted Democratic before the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and northeastern states that voted solid Republican during the 1930s and 1940s.

Alabama and Mississippi are tied for last at just 52 percent – electing the winner in only 13 of 25 contests since 1912.

Georgia and South Carolina are tied for #43 at 60 percent (15 of 25).

Maine and Vermont – which both voted Republican through the five-cycle Democratic sweep from 1932 through 1948 – are tied at #46 with 56 percent (14 of 25). These northeastern states were the only two in the nation to never help elect Franklin Roosevelt in a single election.

Also failing to reach the two-thirds mark are Hawaii (#42, 61.5 percent), South Dakota (#43, 60 percent), and Alaska (#48, 53.8 percent).

The District of Columbia has voted for the winning ticket in just 5 of 12 races (all Democratic), or 41.7 percent, since 1964 when it received its first Electoral College votes.

But when looking ahead to the 2012 election, don’t forget about Missouri.

Although Missouri may have been given a little too much credit while holding its bellwether crown for the past half century, it should not be ignored now that its crown is lost.

But for 3,984 votes in 1956 and 3,903 votes in 2008, the Show Me State would be currently riding a 27-cycle streak.

Number of Cycles Voting for Presidential Election Winner by State, 1912-2008

Rank	State	Winners	Elections	% Won
1	Nevada	24	25	96.0
2	New Mexico	23	25	92.0
2	Ohio	23	25	92.0
2	Missouri	23	25	92.0
5	Tennessee	22	25	88.0
6	Illinois	21	25	84.0
6	California	21	25	84.0
6	Delaware	21	25	84.0
6	Montana	21	25	84.0
6	Kentucky	21	25	84.0
6	Florida	21	25	84.0
12	Maryland	20	25	80.0
12	New Hampshire	20	25	80.0
12	New Jersey	20	25	80.0
12	Idaho	20	25	80.0
12	Colorado	20	25	80.0
17	New York	19	25	76.0
17	Arizona	19	25	76.0
17	Utah	19	25	76.0
17	Connecticut	19	25	76.0
17	West Virginia	19	25	76.0
17	Wyoming	19	25	76.0
17	Oklahoma	19	25	76.0
17	North Carolina	19	25	76.0
17	Texas	19	25	76.0
17	Virginia	19	25	76.0
27	Wisconsin	18	25	72.0
27	Iowa	18	25	72.0
27	Massachusetts	18	25	72.0
27	Oregon	18	25	72.0
27	Pennsylvania	18	25	72.0
27	Rhode Island	18	25	72.0
27	Washington	18	25	72.0
27	Arkansas	18	25	72.0
35	Indiana	17	25	68.0
35	North Dakota	17	25	68.0
35	Michigan	17	25	68.0
35	Minnesota	17	25	68.0
35	Kansas	17	25	68.0
35	Nebraska	17	25	68.0
35	Louisiana	17	25	68.0
42	Hawaii	8	13	61.5
43	South Dakota	15	25	60.0
43	Georgia	15	25	60.0
43	South Carolina	15	25	60.0
46	Maine	14	25	56.0
46	Vermont	14	25	56.0
48	Alaska	7	13	53.8
49	Alabama	13	25	52.0
49	Mississippi	13	25	52.0
51	District of Columbia	5	12	41.7

Data compiled by Smart Politics.

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