Wisconsin, Midwest Lag in Presidential Endorsements from US Representatives

None of the five Badger State US House members have formally backed a candidate to date with the Midwest at a regional low rate of 36 percent

Despite his repeated proclamation that he will not endorse any candidate during the primary, there is still speculation that all-star Wisconsin U.S. Representative and House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan will join his party’s establishment – like Jeb Bush earlier this week – and formally endorse Mitt Romney.

But it’s not just Ryan who has refrained to dole out an endorsement to one of the four remaining members of the Republican field.

Wisconsin has two of the nation’s Top 15 most senior members of the U.S. House in Jim Sensenbrenner of the state’s 5th CD (#14, 17 terms) and Tom Petri of the 6th CD (#15, 17 terms) – and neither has endorsed a candidate to date.

Nor have the greenest members of the state’s delegation: GOP freshmen Sean Duffy and Reid Ribble of the state’s 7th and 8th CDs respectively.

And now, with the Wisconsin primary less than two weeks away, the question lingers whether a ‘big announcement’ will come from any of these five members of the nation’s lower legislative chamber.

A Smart Politics review of endorsements by U.S. Representatives in the race for the Republican presidential nomination finds Wisconsin has the largest remaining GOP delegation which has yet to formally back a candidate, and that Midwestern representatives overall have been the most deliberate on the endorsement front in the 2012 campaign.

Wisconsin is one of 11 states with at least one Republican U.S. Representative that has yet to endorse a candidate, and has the largest such delegation at five GOP members.

Joining the Badger State are Oklahoma (with four Republican members), Kansas (4), Nebraska (3), Iowa (2), West Virginia (2), Alaska (1), Montana (1), South Dakota (1), Montana (1), and North Dakota (1).

Overall, 105 of the 241 Republican representatives in the House (excluding Ron Paul) have endorsed a candidate, or 43.6 percent: 72 for Mitt Romney, 11 for Newt Gingrich, 11 for Rick Perry, six for Rick Santorum, three for Ron Paul, and two for Tim Pawlenty.

(Note: Pawlenty, Gingrich, and Perry all received additional endorsements by U.S. House members who have since backed another campaign).

There has not been a notable difference in the endorsement rate of representatives in states that have voted compared to those which have not.

In fact, the endorsement rate is marginally higher among the Republican U.S. House members in the 22 states that have not yet voted (44.5 percent, 49 of 110) than among those from the 28 states that have already held their contests (42.7 percent, 56 of 131).

Regionally, the Midwest has been the most gun shy on the endorsement front this cycle.

Despite two-thirds of the region’s dozen states already holding their primaries or caucuses, just 36.9 percent of the Midwest GOP delegation have endorsed a candidate (24 of 65 members) – lowest in the country.

Republican U.S. Representatives from the West have been quickest to endorse at 53.5 percent (23 of 43), followed by the South at 44.7 percent (46 of 103, excluding Ron Paul), and the Northeast at 40.0 percent (12 of 30).

Republican U.S. Representative 2012 Presidential Endorsements by Region

Region	Yes	No	Total	% Yes
West	23	20	43	53.5
South*	46	57	103	44.7
Northeast	12	18	30	40.0
Midwest	24	41	65	36.9

Note: Southern region excludes Texas U.S. Representative and presidential candidate Ron Paul. Table compiled by Smart Politics.

Representatives from six Midwestern states have yet to endorse a candidate to date (16 members in total): Wisconsin, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, North Dakota, and South Dakota.

Michigan is the outlier in the region – with all nine of its Republican members formally backing a candidate: Justin Amash for Ron Paul, Candice Miller for Rick Perry (then Romney), and Dan Benishek, Dave Camp, Bill Huizenga, Thad McCotter, Mike Rogers, Fred Upton, and Tim Walberg for Romney.

Only 26 percent of the remaining 56 members of the Midwestern GOP delegation across the other 11 states have made an endorsement in the race.

Unlike Michigan, just three of Ohio’s 13 Republican members of the House have made endorsements.

Down south in Louisiana, which holds its primary on Saturday, only two of the state’s six representatives have endorsed to date – Rodney Alexander for Romney and Steve Scalise for ex-candidate Rick Perry.

Republican U.S. Representative 2012 Presidential Endorsements by State

State	Region	Held contest	Yes	No	% Yes
Michigan	Midwest	Yes	9	0	100.0
Utah	West	No	2	0	100.0
Nevada	West	Yes	2	0	100.0
Oregon	West	No	1	0	100.0
Wyoming	West	Yes	1	0	100.0
Washington	West	Yes	3	1	75.0
North Carolina	South	No	4	2	66.7
Arkansas	South	No	2	1	66.7
Georgia	South	Yes	5	3	62.5
Texas	South	No	13	9	59.1
Pennsylvania	Northeast	No	7	5	58.3
Tennessee	South	Yes	4	3	57.1
California	West	No	10	9	52.6
Missouri	Midwest	Yes	3	3	50.0
Minnesota	Midwest	Yes	2	2	50.0
Kentucky	South	No	2	2	50.0
Maryland	Northeast	No	1	1	50.0
New Hampshire	Northeast	Yes	1	1	50.0
Idaho	West	Yes	1	1	50.0
Illinois	Midwest	Yes	5	6	45.5
Florida	South	Yes	8	11	42.1
South Carolina	South	Yes	2	3	40.0
Arizona	West	Yes	2	3	40.0
Indiana	Midwest	No	2	4	33.3
Louisiana	South	No	2	4	33.3
Alabama	South	Yes	2	4	33.3
Mississippi	South	Yes	1	2	33.3
New York	Northeast	No	2	6	25.0
Colorado	West	Yes	1	3	25.0
Ohio	Midwest	Yes	3	10	23.1
New Jersey	Northeast	No	1	5	16.7
Virginia	South	Yes	1	7	12.5
Wisconsin	Midwest	No	0	5	0.0
Kansas	Midwest	Yes	0	4	0.0
Oklahoma	South	Yes	0	4	0.0
Nebraska	Midwest	No	0	3	0.0
Iowa	Midwest	Yes	0	2	0.0
West Virginia	South	No	0	2	0.0
South Dakota	Midwest	No	0	1	0.0
North Dakota	Midwest	Yes	0	1	0.0
Montana	West	No	0	1	0.0
New Mexico	West	No	0	1	0.0
Alaska	West	Yes	0	1	0.0

Note: Republicans do not hold any seats in the U.S. House in Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. Table compiled by Smart Politics.

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