Gubernatorial Scorecard: The Last 10 Elections by State

Democrats have stumbled to their third worst record in the country in Rhode Island but have won 31 of 40 gubernatorial races in Kentucky, Georgia, West Virginia, and Wyoming

With gubernatorial campaigns well underway in two states on the ballot in 2013 (Virginia and New Jersey) and gearing up in another 36 for the 2014 cycle, Smart Politics offers an at-a-glance scorecard summarizing how Democrats, Republicans, and third parties have fared in each state’s last 10 gubernatorial contests.

With a few exceptions (e.g. states that have held special or recall elections or those that hold contests every two years), this scorecard captures gubernatorial contests since the mid-1970s.

Currently, no party has a 10-cycle winning streak in any state – although three states come close.

Republicans have run off nine consecutive gubernatorial wins in South Dakota and Utah while Democrats have done the same in Washington.

Democrats have also won nine of their last 10 races in Kentucky and Maryland.

Maryland also holds the mark of the only state in which one party has averaged at least 60 percent of the vote over the last 10 contests (with Democrats coming in at 60.0 percent; South Dakota is next with Republicans averaging 58.4 percent).

Republicans have rattled off at least two consecutive wins in 16 states totaling 68 contests: South Dakota and Utah at nine, North Dakota at six, Idaho and Texas at five, Florida, Nevada, and Nebraska at four, Alaska, Alabama, Indiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina with three, and Louisiana and Wisconsin with two.

Democrats, meanwhile, have tallied at least two victories in a row in 15 states totaling 54 contests: Washington at nine, Oregon at seven, Delaware at six, New Hampshire and West Virginia at five, Illinois and Montana at three, and Arkansas, Colorado, Kentucky, Maryland, Massachusetts, Missouri, New York, and Vermont with two.

The political discourse surrounding the partisan leanings of a state frequently seems to be defined by its vote in federal elections (namely president, but also U.S. Senate).

However, the red-blue-purple guideposts that federal elections provide can widely miss the mark when it comes to gubernatorial contests.

For example:

· Over the last 10 contests, Democrats have amassed their third worst record in any state in the country in Rhode Island – with just two victories since 1984 (in 1990 and 1992).

· Democrats in the Midwestern states of Illinois, Iowa, Ohio, and Wisconsin are also under water in gubernatorial contests with a 3-7 record in each – tied for the fourth worst mark for the Party in the nation (although Illinois Democrats have turned the tide and won each of the last three contests).

· Meanwhile, Democrats have amassed a formidable gubernatorial record in ‘red’ states like Kentucky (9-1) and West Virginia (8-2) as well as generally strong performances in Arkansas (7-3), North Carolina (7-3), and Wyoming (7-3) over the last 40 years.

Of course, ’10’ is not a magic number when it comes to examining the voting trends in any state – and in many ways 10 cycles can be a lifetime in politics.

However, looking simply at the previous election cycle as a guide can be deceiving as well – just like many states flipped in 2010, many are sure to do so again in 2014.

The Last 10 Gubernatorial Races by State

State	Years	% DEM	% GOP	% 3rd	DEM	GOP	3rd	Streak
Washington	1976-2012	53.4	45.9	0.7	9	1	0	DEM – 9
Kentucky	1975-2011	57.7	39.5	2.8	9	1	0	DEM – 2
Maryland	1974-2010	60.0	39.6	0.4	9	1	0	DEM – 2
Oregon	1974-2010	50.2	45.7	4.1	8	2	0	DEM – 7
New Hampshire	1994-2012	53.8	43.3	2.9	8	2	0	DEM – 5
West Virginia	1980-2012	54.5	42.8	2.7	8	2	0	DEM – 5
Colorado	1974-2010	54.3	39.4	6.3	8	2	0	DEM – 2
Hawaii	1974-2010	49.3	43.6	7.1	8	2	0	DEM – 1
North Carolina	1976-2012	52.6	45.8	1.6	7	3	0	GOP – 1
Wyoming	1974-2010	51.3	46.9	1.8	7	3	0	GOP – 1
Georgia	1974-2010	56.7	41.7	1.6	7	3	0	GOP – 3
Arkansas	1980-2010	55.2	44.1	0.7	7	3	0	DEM – 2
New York	1974-2010	52.1	40.2	7.7	7	3	0	DEM – 2
New Mexico	1974-2010	51.1	47.1	1.8	6	4	0	GOP – 1
Oklahoma	1974-2010	50.01	44.3	5.7	6	4	0	GOP – 1
Delaware	1976-2012	52.7	46.3	1.0	6	4	0	DEM – 6
Montana	1976-2012	51.5	46.8	1.8	6	4	0	DEM – 3
Massachusetts	1974-2010	50.6	45.6	3.8	6	4	0	DEM – 2
Missouri	1976-2012	50.1	48.6	1.3	6	4	0	DEM – 2
Vermont	1994-2012	49.6	41.9	8.5	6	4	0	DEM – 2
Connecticut	1974-2010	44.7	47.3	8.0	5	4	1	DEM – 1
Maine	1974-2010	37.0	33.3	29.7	4	3	3	GOP – 1
Arizona	1974-2010	47.7	46.6	5.7	5	5	0	GOP – 1
Kansas	1974-2010	45.0	52.2	2.8	5	5	0	GOP – 1
New Jersey	1973-2009	51.1	45.9	3.0	5	5	0	GOP – 1
Pennsylvania	1974-2010	49.7	47.1	3.2	5	5	0	GOP – 1
Tennessee	1974-2010	48.2	50.7	1.1	5	5	0	GOP – 1
Virginia	1973-2009	43.1	51.3	5.6	5	5	0	GOP – 1
Louisiana*	1975-2011	48.9	41.9	0.9	5	5	0	GOP – 2
Mississippi	1975-2011	49.0	49.6	1.4	5	5	0	GOP – 3
Florida	1974-2010	51.5	47.8	0.7	5	5	0	GOP – 4
Nevada	1974-2010	50.0	43.2	6.8	5	5	0	GOP – 4
Idaho	1974-2010	49.1	48.3	2.6	5	5	0	GOP – 5
Alaska	1974-2010	40.0	41.1	18.9	4	5	1	GOP – 3
Minnesota	1974-2010	45.8	44.7	9.5	4	5	1	DEM – 1
California	1978-2010	45.7	47.7	6.6	4	6	0	DEM – 1
Michigan	1974-2010	48.2	50.6	1.2	4	6	0	GOP – 1
Alabama	1974-2010	54.3	44.4	1.3	4	6	0	GOP – 3
Indiana	1976-2012	48.8	49.9	1.3	4	6	0	GOP – 3
Nebraska	1974-2010	44.8	53.8	1.4	4	6	0	GOP – 4
Illinois	1976-2010	41.0	52.2	6.8	3	7	0	DEM – 3
Iowa	1974-2010	45.9	52.7	1.4	3	7	0	GOP – 1
Ohio	1974-2010	47.5	49.7	2.8	3	7	0	GOP – 1
Wisconsin	1978-2012	45.0	52.6	2.4	3	7	0	GOP – 2
South Carolina	1974-2010	49.4	49.4	1.2	3	7	0	GOP – 3
Texas	1974-2010	44.9	50.0	5.1	3	7	0	GOP – 5
North Dakota	1976-2012	41.8	57.3	0.9	3	7	0	GOP – 6
Rhode Island	1984-2010	46.0	47.3	6.7	2	7	1	IND – 1
South Dakota	1974-2010	40.5	58.4	1.1	1	9	0	GOP – 9
Utah	1980-2012	34.7	58.1	7.2	1	9	0	GOP – 9

* Louisiana does not sum to 100 because, if no run-off election is forced, multiple candidates from the same party may appear on the final ballot. The Democratic and Republican averages reflect the top candidate in the final ballot, whether a run-off election or otherwise. Table compiled by Smart Politics.

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