Pennsylvania Democrats Hope to Reverse History in 2014 Gubernatorial Race

Pennsylvanians have elected a governor of the party of the sitting president in only 1 of the last 19 contests dating back to 1938; Democrats are 1-16 since 1860 with a Democrat in the White House

This is the second in a series of reports on the 2014 gubernatorial elections in purple states and how the presence of Barack Obama in the White House may loom over these top of the ticket statewide races. (The first report featured Scott Walker’s reelection bid in Wisconsin).

With approval ratings well under water, Pennsylvania Republican Governor Tom Corbett has not only been a top target for Democrats in the 2014 cycle, but has also been feeling the pressure from some in his own party to bow out of the race.

Smelling blood, Democrats are flocking to join the field, led by U.S. Representative Allyson Schwartz and a bevy of current and former legislators and executive officials.

But while the numbers may look grim for Corbett and the GOP, it seems the political environment in D.C. may yet give them hope for 2014.

A Smart Politics review of Pennsylvania election data finds that the state has voted against the party of the sitting president in 18 of the last 19 gubernatorial contests dating back to 1938.

Keystone State gubernatorial voters have not elected a candidate from the party of the sitting president since Dick Thornburgh eked out a 2.7-point reelection victory over Allen Ertel in 1982.

Since then Pennsylvanians have chosen nominees of the opposing party of the White House in seven consecutive cycles with Democrat Bob Casey (Reagan, G.H.W. Bush), Republican Tom Ridge (Clinton twice), Democrat Ed Rendell (G.W. Bush twice), and Corbett (Obama).

Prior to Thornburgh’s win in 1982, Pennsylvania rattled off a 44-year, 11-cycle streak of electing governors who did not share the partisan affiliation of the president going back to the Election of 1938.

Delving further into history, Pennsylvania Democrats have been particularly ineffective in translating presidential political currency into gubernatorial victories.

Since 1860, with the Keystone State’s own James Buchanan in office, Democrats have lost 16 of 17 Pennsylvania gubernatorial races with a sitting Democratic President in the White House.

The only Democrat to prevail under such circumstances was George Earle in 1934.

Earle, former U.S. Minister to Austria, was elected by 2.3 points over Republican William Schnader in the middle of Franklin Roosevelt’s first term.

Democrats failed to win gubernatorial elections in Pennsylvania during the administrations of Democratic presidents in 1860, 1866, 1886, 1894, 1914, 1918, 1938, 1942, 1946, 1950, 1962, 1966, 1978, 1994, 1998, and 2010.

Put another way, Republicans are 16-1 since 1860 in sending a victorious nominee to Harrisburg when a Democrat serves in the White House.

(The GOP is 11-11 in gubernatorial races with a Republican in the White House during these 150 years and just 1-8 since 1932).

This presidential curse over the last 75 years is a bit curious considering Pennsylvanians have served up a bounty of competitive gubernatorial and presidential races that could have gone either way: 13 of 19 gubernatorial contests have been decided by single digits during this span along with 15 of the last 19 presidential races.

And so, while Corbett may have dug himself quite a hole with 2014 around the corner, if he (or whomever wins the GOP nomination) makes the race close, it appears, at the margins Pennsylvania voters tend not to reward the president when voting for governor – even a president for whom they voted.

Pennsylvania Vote for Governor vis-à-vis Party Control of the White House, 1934-2010

Year	Sitting President	Party	Elected Governor	Party
2010	Obama	Democrat	Tom Corbett	Republican
2006	G.W. Bush	Republican	Ed Rendell	Democrat
2002	G.W. Bush	Republican	Ed Rendell	Democrat
1998	Clinton	Democrat	Tom Ridge	Republican
1994	Clinton	Democrat	Tom Ridge	Republican
1990	G.H.W. Bush	Republican	Bob Casey	Democrat
1986	Reagan	Republican	Bob Casey	Democrat
1982	Reagan	Republican	Dick Thornburgh	Republican
1978	Carter	Democrat	Dick Thornburgh	Republican
1974	Ford	Republican	Milton Schapp	Democrat
1970	Nixon	Republican	Milton Schapp	Democrat
1966	Johnson	Democrat	Raymond Schafer	Republican
1962	Kennedy	Democrat	William Scranton	Republican
1958	Eisenhower	Republican	David Lawrence	Democrat
1954	Eisenhower	Republican	George Leader	Democrat
1950	Truman	Democrat	John Fine	Republican
1946	Truman	Democrat	Jim Duff	Republican
1942	Roosevelt	Democrat	Edward Martin	Republican
1938	Roosevelt	Democrat	Arthur James	Republican
1934	Roosevelt	Democrat	George Earle	Democrat

Table compiled by Smart Politics.

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