Will Kelly Ayotte Match Chris Sununu’s Rare Feat?
Sununu is the only New Hampshire Republican since the Gilded Age to win the governorship whilst his party simultaneously lost all federal races up and down the ballot
Kelly Ayotte’s decisive GOP gubernatorial primary victory against former State Senate President Chuck Morse last week brings her one step closer to achieving a few unusual feats in New Hampshire this November.
Ayotte is looking to become just the 22nd sitting or former U.S. Senator to subsequently win a gubernatorial election since 1900 and the first in New Hampshire. [Ayotte is also only the second to make such an attempt in the state during the direct primary era].
For Ayotte to succeed, she may need to achieve something only outgoing Governor Chris Sununu has accomplished in more than 130 years.
Since the early 1890s, Sununu is the only New Hampshire Republican to be elected governor while his party’s entire federal ticket was defeated.
And he’s done it for each of his four terms in office.
During the 66 cycles from 1892 through 2022, Republicans won the governorship 50 times in New Hampshire with the GOP carrying all federal offices on the ballot in 34 of these.
Sununu first won the governorship in 2016 with a plurality whilst Democrats recorded plurality wins in races for president (Hillary Clinton), U.S. Senator (Maggie Hassan, unseating Ayotte), and both U.S. House seats (Carol Shea-Porter and Ann Kuster).
Sununu and Kuster were reelected with majority support in 2018 as was Democrat Christopher Pappas in the open 1st CD.
In 2020, Sununu ran nearly 20 points ahead of Donald Trump at the top of the ticket while Joe Biden, U.S. Senator Jeanne Shaheen, Kuster, and Pappas all were elected with majorities for the Democrats.
In 2022, Sununu had a very comfortable reelection victory (15.5 points), despite fairly large wins by Hassan (9.1 points), Kuster (11.7 points), and Pappas (8.1 points).
During the remaining 46 cycles in which Republicans won the governorship in New Hampshire since 1892, at least two other GOP nominees for federal office were victorious in 44 of them.
Only Styles Bridges in 1934 and John Sununu in 1982 won elections for governor with their party winning just one federal seat. [In each of those midterm victories, there was no U.S. Senate election held in the state; the two major parties each won a single U.S. House district].
Prior to Chris Sununu, the last New Hampshire Republican to win the governorship in the face of a Democratic federal office sweep was Hiram Tuttle who eked out a 93-vote victory in 1890 while his party was unseated in both congressional districts.
On the Democratic side, only Jeanne Shaheen (1998, 2000) and John Lynch (2010) have been elected governor whilst Republicans swept all the federal races on the ballot during this period under analysis.
In November, Ayotte will face former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig in what is generally considered a coin-flip race and the most competitive among the 11 states holding elections for the office this cycle.
The state will not host a U.S. Senate election in November, but Vice President Harris, Pappas, and newcomer Maggie Goodlander (2nd CD nominee) are each somewhat favored to win.
Whether Ayotte can strike just enough of an independent tone in the coming weeks that helped propel Sununu and other recent Northeastern Republicans in blue states to victory (Phil Scott of Vermont, Charlie Baker of Massachusetts, Larry Hogan of Maryland) remains to be seen.
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(Election ’24 Odds & Ends)
– “…a coin-flip race and the most competitive…” In an earlier, bygone era, nearly all states up this cycle (’23 & ’24) have had genuinely competitive contests, particularly when no elected incumbent was a general election contender.
– When the cycle began, the KY and NC contests were considered the most competitive. While the KY race did turn out to be close (Beshear the younger garnered a lower share of the vote and far fewer counties than the elder “Steve” Beshear had in 2011) the NC election seems recently to be breaking towards the two-term D attorney general (Mark Robinson: out-of-contemporary-mainstream platform and persona? lieutenant governor ‘curse’?), perhaps becoming the only D bright spot for the state (e.g. “45” could well carry the state, longtime Secretary of State Elaine Marshall may at last be defeated).
– Since 2009, incumbent or ex US senators lost gubernatorial bids in NV, GA, AK, LA, and TX while won in KS. My surmise is that the current (and departing) senator in IN is far more likely to win his bid than Ayotte will hers – though her slogan, “Don’t ‘Mass’ with New Hamshire” is rather memorable (with a tinge of anti-migrant, anti-diversity tone meant to appeal to the MAGA disciples in the state).
– Ex-MD Governor Hogan is almost certain to win in (proportionately) more counties for his Senate bid this cycle than his onetime colleague, Democrat “Steve” Bullock in his 2020 MT election, though he too will more likely than not come up short (a non-elected incumbent US senator standing in a presidential year in a state that lopsidedly prefers one party).