Midwestern Democrats Eye Rare Gubernatorial Feat in 2026
A group of six states in the region could elect Democratic governors in the same cycle for the first time in history
While Democrats remain cautiously bullish about their midterm electoral prospects up and down the ballot across the Midwest, the party may still not emerge with a majority of governorships in the 12-state region.
It has been nearly a generation since the last time Democrats controlled at least seven Midwestern governorships – where they currently hold the office in five states (Illinois, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin).
Democrats last held seven seats heading into the 2010 midterms where they promptly ceded five to the GOP (Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin) and flipped one (Minnesota).
This year, the party is optimistic about its chances to carry Iowa and Ohio – each for the first time in 20 years – but Democrats would still need to hold the aforementioned five states to win a majority of governorships provided they did not record any other pick-ups.
Most prognosticators suggest Illinois seems assured to stay blue, with Minnesota probable, Michigan and Wisconsin more likely than not, but Kansas more likely to flip back to the GOP. [South Dakota and Nebraska also hold gubernatorial elections during midterm cycles].
That said, Democrats have an opportunity this November to achieve a feat never before realized in the Midwest region: winning the governorships of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin all in the same cycle.
Since Iowa moved back to even-year elections in 1906, these six Midwestern states have simultaneously had gubernatorial contests on the ballot in 25 cycles: 13 cycles from 1908 through 1956 and 12 cycles from 1978 through 2022. [Ohio switched from two to four-year terms in 1958 and held its elections for governor exclusively in midterms while Illinois continued its tradition since 1848 of holding its contests in presidential election years until the late 1970s].
By contrast, Republicans have swept all six states five times: in 1920, 1928, 1978, 1990, and 1994.
During this period, Democrats have carried five of these six states just twice: in 1932 Minnesota reelected Farmer-Laborite Floyd Olson (with Democratic nominee and State Representative John Regan placing a distant third) and in 2006 Minnesota reelected Republican Tim Pawlenty (with DFL Attorney General Mike Hatch losing by less than a percentage point).
Republicans have carried five of these six states in five cycles: 1916 (all but Ohio), 1924 (Ohio), 1940 (Michigan), 1944 (Ohio), and 2014 (Minnesota).
Looking at smaller samples of these states, Democrats could also:
- Carry Iowa, Minnesota, and Ohio for just the second time since the late 19th Century, and the first time since 1958
- Carry Iowa, Michigan, and Minnesota for the third time ever and first time since 1958 (also 1956)
Iowa and Minnesota have not elected a governor from the same political party for the last seven cycles (the longest period in history), last doing so in 1994.
Meanwhile, Michigan and Wisconsin have elected nominees from the same party for each of the last nine cycles since 1990.
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Wisconsin also had a gubernatorial election during the presidential cycle of 2011-2012.
While (officially) not a Midwestern state Pennsylvania has voted nearly in lockstep with its Great Lakes brethren Michigan and Wisconsin during that timeframe, having diverged from them only in 1990 and 2014 (Democrats are on the brink of sweeping them this cycle as well).
Unless the D presidential ticket manages to lure both Iowa and Ohio – or Florida, a state with quite a few ex-Midwesterners – back into its column, carrying all three is arguably required for its 2028 victory.
In both IA and MN the Democratic/DFL gubernatorial wins have been accompanied by those for attorney general since both adopted 4-year terms in the 1970s. However, this phenomenon may come to an end in at least one of these. In IA, absent a particularly strong showing by the D ticket, AG Brenna F Bird seems likely to win a second term. In MN however, due to fallout from Feeding Our Future and other state-level scandals, even a lopsided win by the DFL ticket might not result in a third term for AG Keith Maurice Ellison (who, as attorney general, arguably can not easily extricate himself from the fraud scandals involving state social services).
Since IA and SD lengthened their gubernatorial terms to four years starting with 1974 this is the first occasion without an elected incumbent standing for another 4-year term in IA, MN, SD, and WI (something that might not have occurred, even this cycle, had ex-MN House Speaker Melissa Anne Hortman not been tragically killed; she had been considered the leading contender for lieutenant governor nominee for the re-election bid of second-term DFL Governor Timothy James Walz).
As well, since then, the Republicans have thrice won the aforementioned quartet of (Upper Midwest) states at the same time, in 1978, 1990, and 1994.
‘Sheep Dog effect’ (if any);
IL seems nearly certain to elect Democrats to every single statewide elective office, in no small part due to the Republican baseline vote having cratered in populous venues such as DuPage County since at least 2018.
IA will likely elect at least one Republican to a statewide office, just as Democrats had done in 2010, 2014, 2018, and even 2022. A particularly strong showing by Democratic Auditor Sand will likely result in concurrent wins for auditor and US Senate as well, with neither office with an incumbent Republican as nominee.
MI has two of its D statewide nominees from the “progressive” (Far Left) faction of the party – and with a base in Washtenaw County as well. If the Republicans were to score any statewide win at all, they will likely win one of these.
MN may see its remarkable (and historic) streak of DFL statewide wins coming to a halt, should the weight of public social services scandals result in the two-term attorney general being voted out (a relatively weak votegetter even beforehand), even as the rest of the ticket were to emerge victorious.
OH has no elected incumbent standing for re-election in any of its (non-judicial) statewide offices – a first in, well, quite a long time (before 2001, for sure). If the 2006 cycle is anything to go by, the ‘losing party’ will likely win at least one statewide office. My surmise, presuming a D win at the top, is that the Republicans will win the treasurer election, since its nominee is (almost uniquely) not a current or past statewide officeholder, and thus would have the latitude to campaign as a fresh face not burdened with the current economic morass.