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Smart Politics

Political Analysis By and Beyond the Numbers Since 2006

Founded and Authored by Dr. Eric Ostermeier

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Presidency

The Most Recent Competitive Statewide Partisan Election in Each State

By Dr. Eric Ostermeier | April 24, 2025 | 6

Forty states have hosted at least one statewide race decided by single digits since the 2018 cycle.

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Wisconsin Notches Closest Presidential Race for 2nd Time

By Dr. Eric Ostermeier | January 27, 2025 | 2

The most narrowly decided presidential contest has been hosted by a Midwestern or Southern state for nine consecutive cycles.

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38 States in the Midst of Record GOP or Democratic Presidential Winning Streaks

By Dr. Eric Ostermeier | November 7, 2024 | 7

More than three-quarters of states saw one of the two major parties extend, set, or tie party records in elections to the White House this cycle.

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Trump Breaks Republican Presidential Nominee Records in Three States

By Dr. Eric Ostermeier | November 6, 2024 | 3

Trump also won the largest percentage of the vote by any party’s presidential nominee in two of these states.

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In Which States Will Partisan Momentum Continue in 2024’s Presidential Contest?

By Dr. Eric Ostermeier | October 29, 2024 | 6

Just four states have seen one party gain ground over each of the last three election cycles.

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Which State Will Be the Most Closely Decided in the 2024 Presidential Election?

By Dr. Eric Ostermeier | October 23, 2024 | 3

Battlegrounds Nevada and North Carolina have never hosted the nation’s most competitive race.

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How Many States Will Have Plurality Presidential Winners in 2024?

By Dr. Eric Ostermeier | October 17, 2024 | 5

With eight candidate choices on the ballot, Wisconsin and Michigan might have the greatest chance to produce plurality victors this November.

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Will Regional Battleground States Cluster as a Bloc in 2024?

By Dr. Eric Ostermeier | October 8, 2024 | 5

A historical look at this cycle’s Magnificent 7.

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In How Many States Will Harris Fail to Win 30 Percent of the Vote?

By Dr. Eric Ostermeier | August 27, 2024 | 2

Democratic futility in statewide presidential elections has outpaced that by the GOP by more than four to one across the nation’s 50 states since 1964.

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Will 2024 See A Drop in the Presidential Popular Vote Count?

By Dr. Eric Ostermeier | July 22, 2024 | 1

The country has seen cycle-to-cycle decreases in the number of votes cast in presidential elections a half-dozen times including four outside of major wars.

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Minnesota Historical Election Archive

Explore over 160 years of election results in Minnesota

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