In American Research Group’s (ARG) 10th consecutive monthly poll of likely Iowa caucus voters, Hillary Clinton leads the Democratic pack for the 9th time. Clinton reached the 30 percent support mark for the 8th time, good for a 6-point lead over Barack Obama. At 24 percent, this was the largest amount of measured support for Obama since ARG began polling in December 2006.
The poll found 19 percent support for John Edwards—a decline for the third straight month after reaching 29 percent in June 2007. Edwards, who had lead in many public polls in Iowa during the Spring and early Summer, now trails Clinton in almost all recent surveys.
Rounding out the Democratic field were Bill Richardson (10 percent), Joe Biden (3 percent), Chris Dodd (1 percent), Dennis Kucinich (1 percent), and Mike Gravel (0 percent). Thirteen percent of likely Democratic caucus voters were undecided.
On the Republican side ARG’s poll shows the race has tightened, with Mitt Romney’s double-digit lead in August 2007 now within the margin of error. ARG measured Romney’s support at 22 percent, followed by Rudy Giuliani at 21 percent, and Fred Thompson at 16 percent.
John McCain, who is perceived to have had strong debate performances of late, including a high-profile debate in New Hampshire last month, received 11 percent, up from 5 percent in August.
Support for Mike Huckabee, who was second in Iowa’s August Straw Poll, dropped from 14 percent in August to 4 percent in the new poll. Huckabee was followed by Sam Brownback (2 percent), Duncan Hunter (2 percent), Ron Paul (2 percent), Tom Tancredo (1 percent), and new GOP candidate Alan Keyes (1 percent).
Newt Gingrich, who recently announced he would not be seeking the Republican nomination, received 5 percent. Thirteen percent of likely Republican caucus voters were undecided.