Minneapolis Crime Rates Continue to Fall as Unemployment Rises

As unemployment rises month-by-month in Minneapolis, along with the rest of the Gopher State, serious violent and property crimes continue to fall in Minnesota’s most populated city at an impressive rate.

Minneapolis’ non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate hit 7.1 percent in February – its highest rate in decades. However, even though jobless claims are up 77.5 percent from a year ago (4.0 percent in February 2008), the index crime rate is down 13.5 percent over the same period.

Index crimes, reported by the Minneapolis Police Department to the FBI for its Uniform Crime Reports, are comprised of four violent crimes (homicide, rape, aggravated assault, and robbery) and four property crimes (burglary, larceny, motor vehicle theft, and arson).

In February 2008, 1,418 such crimes were reported to the MPD, or a rate of 3.7 incidents per 1,000 residents. Last month, index crimes dropped to 1,225, or 3.0 incidents per 1,000 residents – a drop of 13.5 percent from a year ago. (Minneapolis has a population base of approximately 388,000 residents).

The month of February is not an aberration. In fact, crime rates have fallen each month – compared to its respective rate from one year prior – for 15 consecutive months, dating back to December 2007. All the while, monthly unemployment rates have outpaced their respective rates from one year prior for 22 of the past 23 months.

The figure below shows that crime rates tend to rise during the spring and summer, and drop during the late fall and winter.

However, even when the Minneapolis unemployment rate began to rise in May 2008, the city’s crime rate arc basically held its traditional shape, even falling a little.

For example, unemployment in May 2008 (4.7 percent) was up 17.5 percent in Minneapolis from May 2007 (4.0 percent). The crime rate last May, however, was down 11.6 percent (5.9 incidents per 1,000 residents) from May 2007 (6.7 per 1,000).

This trend has been even more pronounced over the past five months:

· October 2008 unemployment levels were up 31.0 percent from October 2007. The crime rate was down 16.1 percent during these months.

· The November 2008 unemployment rate was 42.5 percent higher than November 2007. The crime rate fell 13.2 percent.

· The December 2008 jobless rate was 37.2 percent higher than in December 2007. The crime rate fell 7.6 percent during this period.

· The January 2009 unemployment rate was 60.5 percent higher than in January 2008, while the crime rate dropped 11.9 percent from the year prior.

· The February 2009 jobless rate was 77.5 percent higher than in February 2008, with crime rate falling 13.6 percent from February 2008.

If these trends hold come next fall, Minneapolis Mayor R. T. Rybak, who has run on a crime-fighting platform, has some impressive data to cite during his campaign, even while presiding over an economic crisis.

Minneapolis’ Crime Rate vs. Unemployment Rate, 2006-2009

Month	Crimes	Crime Rate	Unemployment
Jan-06	2,414	6.2	4.2
Feb-06	1,999	5.2	4.0
Mar-06	2,117	5.5	3.9
Apr-06	2,324	6.0	3.6
May-06	2,968	7.6	3.4
Jun-06	2,554	6.6	4.0
Jul-06	2,805	7.2	4.0
Aug-06	2,763	7.1	3.9
Sep-06	2,408	6.2	4.2
Oct-06	2,591	6.7	3.7
Nov-06	2,314	6.0	3.7
Dec-06	2,289	5.9	3.8
Jan-07	2,176	5.6	4.3
Feb-07	1,521	3.9	3.9
Mar-07	1,981	5.1	3.9
Apr-07	2,229	5.7	3.9
May-07	2,595	6.7	4.0
Jun-07	2,673	6.9	4.6
Jul-07	2,821	7.3	4.5
Aug-07	2,857	7.4	4.5
Sep-07	2,592	6.7	4.8
Oct-07	2,791	7.2	4.2
Nov-07	2,361	6.1	4.0
Dec-07	1,901	4.9	4.3
Jan-08	1,802	4.6	4.3
Feb-08	1,418	3.7	4.0
Mar-08	1,735	4.5	4.3
Apr-08	2,033	5.2	4.0
May-08	2,293	5.9	4.7
Jun-08	2,649	6.8	5.3
Jul-08	2,786	7.2	5.8
Aug-08	2,505	6.5	6.1
Sep-08	2,457	6.3	6.0
Oct-08	2,343	6.0	5.5
Nov-08	2,049	5.3	5.7
Dec-08	1,757	4.5	5.9
Jan-09	1,587	4.1	6.9
Feb-09	1,225	3.2	7.1

Note: Crime rate per 1,000 residents for index crimes (homicide, rape, aggravated assault, robbery, burglary, larceny, motor vehicle theft, and arson). Crime data compiled by Smart Politics from the Minneapolis Police Department’s Official UCR Reports. Unemployment data from the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (not seasonally adjusted).

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