How Many Minnesota House ‘Swing Districts’ Will Return to the GOP in 2010?

This week Smart Politics has issued two reports profiling the battle for the Minnesota House in 2010, first by documenting the barriers the GOP faces to cut into the the DFL’s 40-seat advantage, and then by highlighting the 94 ‘stronghold’ districts where the DFL and GOP have remained undefeated respectively since redistricting in 2002.

In the third part of the series, Smart Politics shines a light on the 40 ‘swing districts’ across the Gopher State – those house districts that have been won by both Republicans and DFLers during the last four election cycles.

While recent electoral history suggests the momentum is all with the DFL, new House Minority Leader Kurt Zellers will be tested early – as recruiting strong GOP candidates in these 40 districts is of paramount importance if Republicans hope to get a meaningful seat at the table in 2011.

The DFL currently controls 35 of these 40 swing districts – all but District 28A in Red Wing (Tim Kelly), 31B in La Crescent (Gregory Davids), 37A in Apple Valley (Tara Mack), 51A in Blaine (Tim Sanders), and 52B in Stillwater (Matt Dean). Republicans won all 40 of these districts back in the 2002 general election, but then just 26 in 2004, 7 in 2006, and 5 in 2008.

Overall, the DFL has won 83 of these swing districts in special and general election matchups since 2002, compared to 80 victories for the Republicans.

But the DFL has not simply been picking off these swing districts in competitive races during the last few election cycles. Instead, there has been a gradual buildup in momentum towards the DFL in a significant number of these districts.

For example, the DFL has improved its standing in 24 of these 40 districts in every general election contest since 2002 – by either reducing its margin of loss or increasing its margin of victory in each subsequent election. The DFL now controls all of these 24 swing districts.

DFL Margin of Victory or Loss in 24 Minnesota House Swing Districts, 2002-2008

District	Area	State Rep.	’02	’04	’06	’08
02B	Park Rapids	Brita Sailer	-2.9	1.7	8.0	8.3
12A	Brainerd	John Ward	-13.7	-3.6	9.3	30.0
14B	St. Joseph	Larry Hosch	-33.8	4.1	14.7	34.3
16A	Princeton	Gail K. Jackson	-18.3	-8.6	-2.7	0.4
17B	North Branch	Jeremy Kalin	-16.0	-8.2	1.1	6.6
23A	North Mankato	Terry Morrow	-7.4	3.6	4.8	27.3
26B	Faribault	Patti Fritz	-4.6	2.0	3.9	15.6
27B	Austin	Jeanne Poppe	-2.5	3.3	12.8	32.1
29B	Rochester	Kim Norton	-35.3	-1.6	0.6	23.2
30A	Rochester	Tina Liebling	-6.6	1.7	5.7	23.8
30B	Plainview	Andy Welti	-41.8	2.6	3.8	11.2
38A	Eagan	Sandra Masin	-16.5	-7.5	0.4	5.0
38B	Eagan	Mike Obermueller	-18.9	-7.5	-1.0	2.5
40A	Burnsville	Will Morgan	-22.3	-2.3	6.5	12.0
41B	Bloomington	Paul Rosenthal	-27.5	-21.0	-6.8	5.6
42A	Minnetonka	Maria Ruud	-18.3	1.1	10.1	16.6
43B	Minnetonka	John Benson	-20.6	-4.7	7.9	11.2
45A	New Hope	Sandra Peterson	-11.1	3.9	14.7	17.4
47A	Champlin	Denise Dittrich	-22.2	4.3	8.0	18.9
49B	Coon Rapids	Jerry Newton	-15.8	-12.4	-8.8	13.4
50B	New Brighton	Kate Knuth	-10.6	-3.9	7.5	13.1
53A	Shoreview	Paul Gardner	-15.0	-8.6	0.3	4.7
54B	Vadnais Heights	Bev Scalze	-1.8	4.1	7.3	22.5
56B	Woodbury	Marsha Swails	-18.7	-9.2	2.3	10.1

Note: Data compiled by Smart Politics.

But despite the DFL steamroller gradually flattening its Republican competition through these swing districts, many are still ripe for the picking for the GOP in 2010, particularly if the party can catch a pro-Republican national tailwind or ride a successful GOP gubernatorial candidacy along the way.

Twenty-four of the 40 swing districts still have a net average margin of victory for the Republicans, when taking the long view across all four election cycles since 2002.

In fact, Republicans hold a net double-digit margin of victory advantage in four districts currently held by the DFL: District 37B in Apple Valley (Phillip Sterner, 38.9 points), 41B in Bloomington (Paul Rosenthal, 12.4 points), 26A in Owatonna (Kory Kath, 11.5 points), and 01A in Thief River Falls (Dave Olin, 10.8 points).

The most interesting case is Representative Sterner, who won his open seat in 2008 by 5.2 points against Republican Judy Lindsay, just one election cycle removed after GOPer Dennis Ozment ran uncontested on his way to a 96.9-point victory. Ozment had also won the district by 29.5 points in 2004 and 34.4 points in 2002.

Representative Sterner has already demonstrated a decidedly measured voting record in the House. For example, in February, Sterner was the lone DFLer to vote with the Republican caucus on the House State and Local Government Reform, Technology and Elections Committee, when the DFLers voted down Republican Tom Emmer and Mary Kiffmeyer’s “Voter Integrity Act of 2009” by a vote of 11 to 8. The bill would have required residents to show a valid state-issued ID before voting.

Representative Rosenthal is another high profile target for the Republicans. Rosenthal was able to take advantage of the open District 41B seat after Override 6 alumnus Neil Peterson was denied his party’s endorsement last year. Republicans had won the conservative Bloomington district by 27.5 points in 2002 and 21.0 points in 2004. Rosenthal then turned a 6.8-point loss against Peterson in 2006 to a 5.6-point victory over Jan Schneider in 2008.

Rosenthal’s voting record has not gone unnoticed by the GOP leadership. Back in February, former House Minority Leader Marty Siefert characterized Rosenthal’s early voting record in the House thusly:

“You can just take Paul Rosenthal’s button with the Republicans and just put a paper clip in it and send him back to Bloomington. He’s just going to vote with us on everything because he can, not because he necessarily believes it’s the right thing or wrong thing.”

Minnesota House Swing Districts with a Net GOP Margin of Victory Advantage, 2002-2008

Rank	District	Area	State Rep.	Party	MoV
1	37B*	Apple Valley	Phillip Sterner	DFL	38.9
2	41B	Bloomington	Paul Rosenthal	DFL	12.4
3	26A	Owatonna	Kory Kath	DFL	11.5
4	01A	Thief River Falls	Dave Olin	DFL	10.8
5	40A	Burnsville	Will Morgan	DFL	8.8
6	37A	Apple Valley	Tara Mack	GOP	8.4
7	16A	Princeton	Gail Kulich Jackson	DFL	7.3
8	38B	Eagan	Mike Obermueller	DFL	6.2
9	30B	Plainview	Andy Welti	DFL	6.1
10	49B	Coon Rapids	Jerry Newton	DFL	5.9
11	12B	Little Falls	Al Doty	DFL	5.6
12	28A	Red Wing	Tim Kelly	GOP	5.5
13	52B	Stillwater	Matt Dean	GOP	5.0
14	53A	Shoreview	Paul Gardner	DFL	4.7
15	38A	Eagan	Sandra Masin	DFL	4.6
16	51A	Blaine	Tim Sanders	GOP	4.6
17	17B	North Branch	Jeremy Kalin	DFL	4.1
18	27A	Albert Lea	Robin Brown	DFL	4.1
19	56B	Woodbury	Marsha Swails	DFL	3.9
20	31B	La Crescent	Gregory Davids	GOP	3.4
21	29B	Rochester	Kim Norton	DFL	3.3
22	43B	Minnetonka	John Benson	DFL	1.5
23	47A	Champlin	Denise Dittrich	DFL	1.3
24	56A	Woodbury	Julie Bunn	DFL	0.7

* Republican candidate unchallenged in 2006. Data compiled by Smart Politics.

As for the DFL, they have built a net average margin of victory in just 16 of the 40 districts since 2002, and only two by double-digit margins – District 44A in St. Louis Park (Steve Simon, 21.9 points) and 27B in Austin (Jeanne Poppe, 11.4 points).

Minnesota House Swing Districts with a Net DFL Margin of Victory Advantage, 2002-2008

Rank	District	Area	State Rep.	MoV
1	44A	St. Louis Park	Steve Simon	21.9
2	27B	Austin	Jeanne Poppe	11.4
3	04A	Bemidji	John Persell	9.2
4	54B	Vadnais Heights	Bev Scalze	8.0
5	23A	North Mankato	Terry Morrow	7.1
6	45A	New Hope	Sandra Peterson	6.2
7	30A	Rochester	Tina Liebling	6.2
8	12A	Brainerd	John Ward	5.5
9	14B	St. Joseph	Larry Hosch	4.8
10	26B	Faribault	Patti Fritz	4.2
11	47B	Brooklyn Park	Melissa Hortman	3.8
12	02B	Park Rapids	Brita Sailer	3.8
13	42A	Minnetonka	Maria Ruud	2.4
14	50B	New Brighton	Kate Knuth	1.5
15	25B	Northfield	David Bly	1.1
16	08B	Mora	Tim Faust	0.2

Note: Data compiled by Smart Politics.

However, even though the DFL only netted two seats in the House in 2008, they amassed an impressive number of decisive victories in the state’s swing districts.

In fact, the DFL won half of these 40 swing districts by double-digit margins last November, including eight by more than 22 points.

DFL Margin of Victory in Minnesota House Swing Districts, 2008

District	Area	State Rep.	MoV
44A	St. Louis Park	Steve Simon	37.3
14B	St. Joseph	Larry Hosch	34.3
27B	Austin	Jeanne Poppe	32.1
12A	Brainerd	John Ward	30.0
23A	North Mankato	Terry Morrow	27.3
30A	Rochester	Tina Liebling	23.8
29B	Rochester	Kim Norton	23.2
54B	Vadnais Heights	Bev Scalze	22.5
47A	Champlin	Denise Dittrich	18.9
45A	New Hope	Sandra Peterson	17.4
42A	Minnetonka	Maria Ruud	16.6
26B	Faribault	Patti Fritz	15.6
27A	Albert Lea	Robin Brown	15.4
26A	Owatonna	Kory Kath	13.9
49B	Coon Rapids	Jerry Newton	13.4
50B	New Brighton	Kate Knuth	13.1
40A	Burnsville	Will Morgan	12.0
43B	Minnetonka	John Benson	11.2
30B	Plainview	Andy Welti	11.2
56B	Woodbury	Marsha Swails	10.1
47B	Brooklyn Park	Melissa Hortman	9.7
02B	Park Rapids	Brita Sailer	8.3
04A	Bemidji	John Persell	8.1
25B	Northfield	David Bly	6.8
17B	North Branch	Jeremy Kalin	6.6
56A	Woodbury	Julie Bunn	5.6
41B	Bloomington	Paul Rosenthal	5.6
37B	Apple Valley	Phillip Sterner	5.2
01A	Thief River Falls	Dave Olin	5.0
38A	Eagan	Sandra Masin	5.0
53A	Shoreview	Paul Gardner	4.7
38B	Eagan	Mike Obermueller	2.5
08B	Mora	Tim Faust	1.5
16A	Princeton	Gail Kulich Jackson	0.4
12B	Little Falls	Al Doty	0.4

Note: Data compiled by Smart Politics.

As for the five Republicans who still control Minnesota House swing districts, Matt Dean won his District 52B race by 11.3 points in 2008, Tara Mack (37A) and Tim Sanders (51A) each won by 4.6 points, Tim Kelly (28A) won by 3.8 points, and Gregory Davids (31B) won by 2.1 points.

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