Posts by Dr. Eric Ostermeier
Illinois’ US Senate Primary by the Numbers
A record number of Democratic candidates led to a Top 5 party-best competitive primary.
Read MoreWill South Dakota Host Its 1st Gubernatorial Primary Runoff in 2026?
A competitive four-candidate field puts the 35 percent threshold in doubt for the first time in 40 years.
Read MoreWisconsin Supreme Court: Help Wanted
The state will host a record fourth consecutive open seat race for the office in 2027.
Read MoreGet Out the Eraser
While Texas U.S. Senator John Cornyn exceeded prognosticator expectations by landing in first place in the GOP primary last week, he heads to the May runoff breaking his own state party record for the lowest support for an incumbent in a race for the office. Cornyn won 41.9 percent, some 17.5 points behind the 59.4…
Read MoreMullin Vacancy Would Give Oklahoma Eight US Senate Elections in 12 Years
Ten states have held at least eight elections across a 12-year span during the direct election era.
Read MoreWill Crockett vs. Talarico Also Head to a Runoff?
Only one out of 11 Texas U.S. Senate primary elections with three candidates on the ballot have failed to yield a nominee.
Read MoreRecords Are Made to Be Broken
Political parties in three states set all-time party and a few state records in gubernatorial elections during the 2022 midterms. In Hawaii, Lieutenant Governor Josh Green won a party- and state-high 63.16 percent in the gubernatorial race, besting predecessor David Ige’s 62.67 percent in 2018. In Florida, GOP Governor Ron DeSantis received 59.37 percent –…
Read MoreA Review of Gubernatorial Elections without Two Major Party Candidates
More than 95 percent of gubernatorial elections since 1900 have had two major party candidates on the ballot including every election in 34 states.
Read MoreA Review of US Senate Elections without Two Major Party Candidates
Voters in at least one and in as many as four states will not have candidates from both major parties on the ballot in 2026’s U.S. Senate elections.
Read MoreHow Often Do Sitting US Senators Place Third (Or Worse) in Primaries?
A competitive Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary could lead to a result not seen in more than 60 years.
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