Political Crumbs

Of the six states to flip from Democratic to Republican in the 2016 presidential election, five had more than 10 Electoral College votes – Florida (29), Michigan (16), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), and Wisconsin (10). That is the largest number of states with 10+ votes to flip to the GOP since Ronald Reagan’s landslide victory…

Donald Trump has a 0.23-point lead over Hillary Clinton in Michigan, and, if the numbers hold, the state will have the distinction of being the most closely decided in the nation this cycle. [In second place: Clinton’s 0.37-point lead over Trump in New Hampshire]. This marks the second time the Wolverine State has hosted the…

North Carolina Republican Governor Pat McCrory is in the political fight of his life in his reelection battle against Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper this cycle. While McCrory might not prevail in 2016, his victory in 2012 was notable in one respect: he became the first GOPer to be elected governor of North Carolina with…

Democrats currently hold 39 U.S. House seats from California – the largest number in party history. Democrats could push that number to over 40 seats from the Golden State after the 2016 election as the party appears on track to hold all of its seats and tries to upend GOP incumbents Jeff Denham (CA-10), David…

With attorney Abhay Patel dropping out of the Louisiana’s U.S. Senate race this week, Pelican State voters now have only 23 candidates from which to choose in November’s jungle primary: eight Republicans, seven Democrats, two Libertarians, four independents, and two others. The 2016 field is the largest for the office in Louisiana history, easily besting…

New Hampshire’s high profile 1st CD race between Republican U.S. Representative Frank Guinta and former Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter includes three other candidates after a state commission ruled last week that independent Shawn O’Connor is allowed on the ballot, joining Libertarian Robert Lombardo and independent Brendan Kelly. With five candidate choices, the 1st CD contest will…

The DFL is eying Minnesota Erik Paulsen’s 3rd CD seat in November, but the Republican U.S. Representative has a lot of electoral history on his side. The western suburban district has voted GOP in each of the last 28 cycles since 1960 – the longest Republican congressional winning streak ever in Minnesota. The party previously…

A recent Smart Politics report highlighted various U.S. House districts in which voters will have the choice of only one major party candidate on the 2016 general election ballot. Since redistricting and reapportionment in 2012, there have been six districts across the country to feature only one major party nominee in all three cycles. Democrats…

The White House has flipped partisan control four times across the nine presidential elections since Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter in 1980. Only two states have consistently followed the partisan ebb and flow of the U.S. electorate during this three-plus decade stretch by voting for the winning candidate in each cycle: Ohio (tallying 13 in…

In 36 of the last 47 cycles since 1828, the margin of victory in presidential elections has been less than one percentage point in at least one state. [And less than one-tenth of a percentage point in a dozen of these cycles]. Twenty-eight states hold the distinction of hosting the closest race over this 47-cycle…