Archive for 2011
Meet the New Bellwether States: Ohio and Nevada
Ohio has the longest current streak in the nation with 12 consecutive elections voting for the winning presidential candidate; Nevada has the highest rate over the last 100 years at 96 percent (24 of 25 cycles)
Read MoreCan Mark Dayton Give Barack Obama a Boost in Minnesota in 2012?
History suggests having a DFLer in St. Paul is unlikely to be a decisive factor, but may be worth +1.4 points to Obama in next year’s presidential race
Read MorePresidential Battleground States by the Numbers Since 1968
Wisconsin and Pennsylvania lead the way with nine races decided by single-digits over the last 11 presidential election cycles; Missouri and Oregon are next with eight
Read MoreSelection Bias? PolitiFact Rates Republican Statements as False at 3 Times the Rate of Democrats
PolitiFact assigns “Pants on Fire” or “False” ratings to 39 percent of Republican statements compared to just 12 percent of Democrats since January 2010
Read MoreHow High Is Too High? Unemployment and the 2012 Presidential Race
Ronald Reagan got reelected in a landslide in 1984 with an unemployment rate of 7.2 percent, while George H.W. Bush was defeated in 1992 with a nearly identical 7.4 percent rate
Read MoreFormer Pawlenty Chief of Staff Bob Schroeder to speak at Humphrey School
Event focuses on keys to successful governorships and what lies ahead for Mark Dayton’s administration
Read MoreRehberg Would Make GOP History by Defeating Tester in MT US Senate Race
Sitting at-large representatives have unseated U.S Senators just 17 percent of the time over the last 100 years – a feat never accomplished by a Republican
Read MoreNo GOP Challenger Yet For Amy Klobuchar? No Problem
No eventual major party nominee over the last four Minnesota U.S. Senate elections had announced their candidacy at this point in the election cycle
Read MoreExperienced ‘Outsiders’: Do Ex-Elected Officials Make the Strongest Presidential Challengers?
Incumbent presidents have won only 50 percent of elections against former elected officeholders over the last 220 years, compared to 76 percent against sitting elected officials and those never elected to political office
Read MoreObama’s SOTU: Uniting the Country…through Pronouns?
Obama’s 2011 State of the Union incorporated the 2nd largest percentage of first-person plural pronouns since FDR
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