Posts by Dr. Eric Ostermeier
Stealing Thunder: Will the Democratic Convention Blunt the ‘Trump Bounce?’
Across the last 20 cycles since 1936 there has been no positive correlation connecting shorter gaps between conventions and the president’s party holding the White House that November.
Read MoreDo Vice-Presidential Nominees Carry Their Home States?
Since 1828, just a shade over half of major party presidential tickets won the home state of their VP nominees; one-quarter were not even able to hold the state after winning it during the previous cycle.
Read MoreOne and Done?
Fifteen first-term U.S. Senators are running for reelection this cycle (excluding Illinois Republican Mark Kirk who served a shade over a month in 2010 after winning special and general elections that November). Many of these incumbents are facing grim to uncertain prospects for winning a second term and history suggests at least one will be…
Read MoreGrassley Not Yet Out to Pasture
Iowa Republican Chuck Grassley may be facing his most competitive reelection bid of his U.S. Senate career, but he is still favored to win a seventh term against Democratic nominee Patty Judge. Just 15 U.S. Senators have won seven terms during the direct election era including Mississippi Republican Thad Cochran in 2014. [A 16th, Wyoming…
Read MoreA Brief Look at Indiana’s Rich History of Landing Vice-Presidential Nominees
The Hoosier State has produced the second largest number of running mates in U.S. history.
Read MoreBayh Could Succeed Same US Senator Twice for Just 2nd Time in US History
It has been 135 years since the last – and only – time one senator directly followed another twice in the chamber.
Read MoreHard to Say Good-Bayh?
Evan Bayh’s headline-making entrance into Indiana’s 2016 U.S. Senate race brings a familiar name back to the front page in Hoosier State politics. Bayh previously served two terms in the chamber before retiring in 2010 while his father, Birch, served three terms ending with a 7.4-point loss to Republican Dan Quayle during the Reagan Revolution…
Read MoreThe Real Law and Order Party
On Monday, Donald Trump proclaimed himself the “law and order candidate” – resurrecting Richard Nixon’s 1968 campaign rhetoric. More than a century prior, the actual Law and Order Party had electoral success for a brief period in Rhode Island. Formed in the early 1840s in response to the Dorr Rebellion (a movement led by Thomas…
Read MoreBayh and Feingold Could Become 1st Pair of Ex-US Senators to Return to Chamber in 60 Years
It has been 30 cycles since the last time multiple former Senators returned to their old job in the same cycle.
Read MoreDemocrats Seek to Extend, Tie Record Gubernatorial Winning Streaks in 2016
After the 2016 cycle, the party could reach record winning streaks for governor in five states across three regions of the country.
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