Posts by Dr. Eric Ostermeier
Down to the Wire
In 36 of the last 47 cycles since 1828, the margin of victory in presidential elections has been less than one percentage point in at least one state. [And less than one-tenth of a percentage point in a dozen of these cycles]. Twenty-eight states hold the distinction of hosting the closest race over this 47-cycle…
Read MoreUpper Midwestern Democrats Could Make Historic US House Gains in 2016
Democrats could pick off five of the 11 Republican-held seats held in Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin (46 percent) – the second highest rate for the party in history.
Read MoreA Strong Performance By Trump Might Not Save Some GOP US Senators
Since 1972, 12 of the 27 Republican U.S. Senators to lose during presidential election cycles did so while the GOP White House nominee carried their state.
Read MoreLiz Cheney Records 4th Lowest Support for Wyoming GOP US House Nominee Since 1912
Just eight out of 53 Republican nominees over the last century failed to win a majority of the vote; Tuesday’s nine-candidate field was the largest in state history by either party.
Read MoreIndiana Voters Could See Rare Split-Ticket in 2016
Over the last century, Indiana voters have never backed a presidential nominee without also supporting that party’s gubernatorial or U.S. Senate nominee.
Read MoreMinnesota US Representatives Extend Renomination Streak to 198
U.S. House members from the Gopher State have also won 291 of 292 primaries since 1942.
Read MoreTom Emmer Records Weakest Minnesota GOP US House Primary Win in 50+ Years
No incumbent Minnesota Republican U.S. House member had won less than 80 percent of the primary vote since 1962.
Read MoreMajority of Wisconsin US Reps Face Primary Challengers for 1st Time Since 1950
Approximately five in six incumbents have run unopposed for their party’s nomination in the Badger State over the last six-plus decades.
Read MoreNumber of Female Lieutenant Governors to Increase After 2016
Midwestern states account for 40 percent of the cumulative female lieutenant gubernatorial service in U.S. history along with the three longest current streaks (Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin).
Read MoreJohn Conyers Wins Renomination by Narrowest Margin of Congressional Career
The 87-year old Democrat is still on track to become the second longest-serving member of the U.S. House in history during the 115th Congress.
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