Posts by Dr. Eric Ostermeier
The Most Competitive States for US Senate Elections
Just seven states have had an average victory margin of less than 10 points over the last three decades with North Carolina leading the pack.
Read MoreThe Elusive Majority
Four states hold gubernatorial elections in 2018 where winners have fallen short of garnering the support of a majority of voters in at least the last two consecutive cycles. Maine has done so in each of the last four cycles with a plurality of voters electing Democrat John Baldacci in 2002 (47.2 percent) and 2006…
Read MoreWe’ve Always Got Des Moines
While perhaps lacking an A-list contender, Iowa Democrats are not short of candidates for governor in 2018 with nine men and women officially in the race or exploring a bid. If the eventual Democratic nominee picks up the seat, he or she will become the fourth member of the party to win a gubernatorial election…
Read More2018 Could Have Fewest US Senate Retirements in Direct Election Era
An average of seven senators have retired from the chamber each cycle during the past quarter-century; no incumbent up for reelection next year has yet closed the door on a 2018 bid.
Read MoreHow Many Trump States Will Back Democratic US Senate Nominees in 2018?
The 10 Trump states with Democratic incumbents have voted for senate nominees from the opposing party of the sitting president 62 percent of the time over the last 50 years.
Read MoreAshford vs Bacon II: A History of Nebraska US House Rematch Elections
12 percent of Nebraska elections to the chamber have featured rematches between major party nominees; challengers have won 1 in 3 of these races but none in the last half-century.
Read MoreParnell vs Norman: 3rd Closest South Carolina US House Race Since 1800s
In an unusually competitive race, Democrats failed to pick up a GOP-held seat in the Palmetto State for a nation-leading 61st election in a row.
Read MoreGeorgia Hosts Rare Competitive US House Election with Ossoff-Handel Runoff
Since 1964, the average victory margin in a Georgia U.S. House race has been 50 points; just 1 of the last 69 races since 2008 has been decided by less than five points.
Read MoreJeff Merkley and a History of Oregon Presidential Candidates
The progressive senator would be the first major party White House hopeful from the Beaver State in the modern primary era.
Read MoreHow Many Gubernatorial Seats Will the GOP Lose in 2018?
The party of the sitting president has won 43 percent of gubernatorial races since the McKinley administration.
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