Posts by Dr. Eric Ostermeier
Will the House Follow Suit?
If Democrats face Donald Trump or Ted Cruz in November, the party is confident a victory at the top of the ticket would not only result in a good chance at taking back the U.S. Senate but also making notable gains in the House of Representatives. Since the U.S. House reached 435 members in the…
Read MorePrimary Wins Are Not Predictive of General Election Success (Part II, the Democrats)
Obama, Kerry, and Bill Clinton all performed as well or better in the general election in states they lost during the primaries versus those they won
Read MorePrimary Wins Are Not Predictive of General Election Success: Part I, the Republicans
Since 1976, GOP nominees have been victorious at a greater rate in states they lost during the primary season than in those they won.
Read MoreIllinois Democratic Primary Has Closest Finish in State History
The Clinton-Sanders battle easily broke the record for the most competitive presidential primary for either party in Illinois history; the Trump-Cruz race was the second closest GOP battle in the state.
Read MoreRubio 3rd GOPer in 80 Years to Win a State, But Lose Home Primary
Rubio joins George H.W. Bush in 1980 and Pat Robertson in 1988 as the only Republicans since the mid-1930s with wins under their belt to lose their home state primary.
Read MoreWill Florida, Illinois Extend the Nation’s Longest Streak Backing the Eventual GOP Nominee?
Three states have backed every Republican presidential candidate over the last 15 cycles since 1956 – two vote on Tuesday.
Read MoreEx-Presidential Candidates Winning 2 Percent of GOP Primary Vote
Nearly a quarter-million votes have been cast for Republicans in primaries and caucuses who had already exited the race, led by Bush, Carson, Paul, and Huckabee.
Read MoreTrump Wins Michigan Primary with Lowest Support in Party History
Trump breaks a 96-year old party record by winning the Wolverine State with less than 37 percent of the vote.
Read MoreIdaho Anticipating 1st Competitive GOP Primary in State History
The most closely decided Republican presidential primary in the Gem State prior to 2016 was 40 points.
Read MoreA Hard Act to Follow in Mississippi
The Iowa caucuses may have provided the most razor-thin 1-2 finish in the 2012 Republican race, with Rick Santorum edging Mitt Romney by 0.03 points (34 votes) and Ron Paul just 3.13 points back. However, the closest 1-2-3 finish that cycle was actually in Mississippi nearly two and one-half months later, where the state’s March…
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