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Florida

Which States Own the Best Track Record in Backing Eventual GOP Presidential Nominees?

By Dr. Eric Ostermeier | April 17, 2015 | 1

Nine states (each with primaries) have an unblemished record in voting for the eventual Republican nominee since 1976 – and not all host contests on the back end of the calendar.

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Will Rubio or Bush Emerge As the Strongest Florida Presidential Candidate in History?

By Dr. Eric Ostermeier | April 15, 2015 | 1

Only a handful of Floridians have run for president since statehood 170 years ago – few made even the slightest footprint.

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Patrick Murphy and a Brief History of US Senate Bids by Florida US Reps

By Dr. Eric Ostermeier | March 13, 2015 | 1

Sitting or ex- Florida U.S. Representatives have won U.S. Senate seats in just two of 17 attempts since 1970.

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Which States Are Likely to Split Their Presidential-US Senate Vote in 2016?

By Dr. Eric Ostermeier | February 11, 2015 | 0

States have split their ballot only 29 percent of the time in presidential and U.S. Senate elections over the last century; 6% in NC, 11% in WI and 16% in IL (key 2016 battlegrounds).

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Did Jeb Bush Wait Too Long to Run for President?

By Dr. Eric Ostermeier | December 16, 2014 | 4

It has been 150+ years since the last time there was a 14-year gap between a presidential candidate’s last legislative or executive office electoral victory and a successful White House campaign.

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Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

By Dr. Eric Ostermeier | December 10, 2014 | 1

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

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No Wiggle Room: The 2014 Gubernatorial Elections Are Lousy with Toss-ups

By Dr. Eric Ostermeier | October 27, 2014 | 1

The eight tightest gubernatorial races in the country all involve incumbents and the 2014 cycle could yield the most gubernatorial races decided by less than a point since at least 1900.

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A Brief History of Ex-Governors Returning to Power

By Dr. Eric Ostermeier | September 2, 2014 | 5

Nearly 150 ex-governors in U.S. history have returned to their position after a gap in service; five have done so after changing parties since 1900 with Charlie Crist of Florida hoping to be the sixth in 2014.

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Will Overby’s Candidacy Ignite Florida Libertarians in 2014?

By Dr. Eric Ostermeier | March 12, 2014 | 0

Overby is just the fifth candidate to appear on the ballot as a Libertarian in a Florida U.S. House race.

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Advantage Sink? Women Win US House Specials at More Than 2x Rate of General Elections

By Dr. Eric Ostermeier | March 11, 2014 | 0

Since 1980, women have won nearly a quarter of the nation’s 141 U.S. House special elections (and 58 percent of contests featuring only one female major party nominee), compared to just 11 percent of general election races.

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