Posts by Dr. Eric Ostermeier
US Representatives Not Lining Up to Flip Gubernatorial Seats in 2018
Only 1 of 49 U.S. Representatives are seeking to flip gubernatorial seats in states carried by their party’s presidential nominee last year.
Read MoreCan Steve Pearce Give the New Mexico GOP Its First Gubernatorial Three-Peat?
New Mexico Republicans have attempted to win a third consecutive gubernatorial election five times since statehood; all have failed (all with GOP presidents in office).
Read MoreWhere Are All the Senate Bids by GOP US Representatives?
Only one of the 73 Republican U.S. House members from Trump states with Democratic US Senators on the 2018 ballot has mounted a challenge.
Read MoreMinnesota DFL Eyes Rare Competitive Gubernatorial Primary in 2018
Just three of the party’s 23 primaries for governor since the merger 73 years ago have been decided by single digits.
Read MoreThe Most Competitive States for US Senate Elections
Just seven states have had an average victory margin of less than 10 points over the last three decades with North Carolina leading the pack.
Read MoreWe’ve Always Got Des Moines
While perhaps lacking an A-list contender, Iowa Democrats are not short of candidates for governor in 2018 with nine men and women officially in the race or exploring a bid. If the eventual Democratic nominee picks up the seat, he or she will become the fourth member of the party to win a gubernatorial election…
Read MoreThe Elusive Majority
Four states hold gubernatorial elections in 2018 where winners have fallen short of garnering the support of a majority of voters in at least the last two consecutive cycles. Maine has done so in each of the last four cycles with a plurality of voters electing Democrat John Baldacci in 2002 (47.2 percent) and 2006…
Read More2018 Could Have Fewest US Senate Retirements in Direct Election Era
An average of seven senators have retired from the chamber each cycle during the past quarter-century; no incumbent up for reelection next year has yet closed the door on a 2018 bid.
Read MoreHow Many Trump States Will Back Democratic US Senate Nominees in 2018?
The 10 Trump states with Democratic incumbents have voted for senate nominees from the opposing party of the sitting president 62 percent of the time over the last 50 years.
Read MoreAshford vs Bacon II: A History of Nebraska US House Rematch Elections
12 percent of Nebraska elections to the chamber have featured rematches between major party nominees; challengers have won 1 in 3 of these races but none in the last half-century.
Read More