Posts by Dr. Eric Ostermeier
How Meaningful Is Clinton’s Primary Vote ‘Lead’ Over Trump?
Interparty primary vote comparisons are a tricky business and do not always correlate with general election outcomes.
Read MoreAre There Any Democratic Primary Bellwethers?
Unlike their GOP counterparts, Democrats have few states that have consistently backed the party’s eventual nominee over the last 40+ years.
Read MoreMartin O’Malley: Southern Outlier?
Kentucky became the sixth state where O’Malley has eclipsed one percent of the primary vote – all located in the South.
Read MoreMinnesota GOP Could Win Just 1 US House Seat for 1st Time Since 1890
Gopher State Republicans have claimed less than two seats in the chamber in just three of 81 cycles since statehood – all during the 19th Century.
Read MoreWhat Is Trump’s Magic Number to Coalesce GOP Support in the Last 7 Primaries?
Presumptive GOP nominees have averaged more than 75 percent of the primary vote after their main challengers have exited the race.
Read MoreThe Potential Pitfall of Selecting Sherrod Brown as Clinton’s VP
If Democrats win the White House and net just four U.S. Senate seats this November, they will lose their majority status in the chamber by January 20th should Clinton pick Brown, Cory Booker, or Elizabeth Warren as her running mate.
Read MoreSanders Still Cruises in 2nd Most Competitive West Virginia Democratic Primary in History
Sanders’ 15-point victory was the closest Democratic race in the Mountain State since before the Great Depression.
Read MoreHow Big of a Footprint Will Alan LaPolice Leave On Kansas’ 1st CD Race?
It has been 142 years since the last time an independent U.S. House candidate from Kansas won 10 percent of the vote.
Read MoreTed Cruz Records 8th Longest Losing GOP Presidential Bid in Modern Era
The Texas U.S. Senator was the first Republican in and nearly the last one out, notching a rare failed campaign of more than 400 days.
Read MoreSeven GOP Bellwethers to Remain After 2016 Primary Contests
Five states (plus two yet to vote) will keep their perfect records intact for backing the eventual Republican nominee in the modern primary era; two states lost their bellwether status this cycle.
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