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Presidency

Primary Wins Are Not Predictive of General Election Success: Part I, the Republicans

By Dr. Eric Ostermeier | March 21, 2016 | 3

Since 1976, GOP nominees have been victorious at a greater rate in states they lost during the primary season than in those they won.

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Illinois Democratic Primary Has Closest Finish in State History

By Dr. Eric Ostermeier | March 17, 2016 | 1

The Clinton-Sanders battle easily broke the record for the most competitive presidential primary for either party in Illinois history; the Trump-Cruz race was the second closest GOP battle in the state.

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Rubio 3rd GOPer in 80 Years to Win a State, But Lose Home Primary

By Dr. Eric Ostermeier | March 16, 2016 | 2

Rubio joins George H.W. Bush in 1980 and Pat Robertson in 1988 as the only Republicans since the mid-1930s with wins under their belt to lose their home state primary.

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Ex-Presidential Candidates Winning 2 Percent of GOP Primary Vote

By Dr. Eric Ostermeier | March 11, 2016 | 2

Nearly a quarter-million votes have been cast for Republicans in primaries and caucuses who had already exited the race, led by Bush, Carson, Paul, and Huckabee.

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Trump Wins Michigan Primary with Lowest Support in Party History

By Dr. Eric Ostermeier | March 9, 2016 | 1

Trump breaks a 96-year old party record by winning the Wolverine State with less than 37 percent of the vote.

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Idaho Anticipating 1st Competitive GOP Primary in State History

By Dr. Eric Ostermeier | March 8, 2016 | 0

The most closely decided Republican presidential primary in the Gem State prior to 2016 was 40 points.

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Which Media Outlet’s Republican Delegate Tracker Do You Believe?

By Dr. Eric Ostermeier | March 7, 2016 | 1

Major media outlets cannot agree on any of the delegate counts for the top three GOP candidates, nor the allotment from 11 states that have voted thus far.

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When Will We See A Trump Majority?

By Dr. Eric Ostermeier | March 4, 2016 | 1

The 2016 Republican nomination fight marks the first time in party history in which no candidate has won a majority of the vote in the first 15 statewide contests.

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Super Tuesday Remainders

By Dr. Eric Ostermeier | March 3, 2016 | 0

The unusually competitive and crowded GOP field is lowering the bar to victory in many states.

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Cruz Records Weakest Home State GOP Primary Victory in Party History

By Dr. Eric Ostermeier | March 2, 2016 | 11

Each of the 65+ previous Republican presidential candidates who carried their home state did so with a larger percentage of the vote than Cruz; Cruz is one of only six who failed to reach the 50 percent mark.

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